From fossil fuels to renewables

An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning

Journal article (2019)

Authors

Kamia Handayani University of Twente, PT. PLN (Persero)
Yoram Krozer University of Twente
T. Filatova University of Twente, University of Technology Sydney
Research Group
Policy Analysis (TPM) (TU Delft)
Indonesia Renewable energy Climate change mitigation Technological learning LEAP
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Published Date

2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Research Group

Policy Analysis

Abstract

This study analyses a diffusion of renewable energy in an electricity system accounting for technological learning. We explore long-term scenarios for capacity expansion of the Java-Bali electricity system in Indonesia, considering the country's renewable energy targets. We apply the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with an integration of technological learning. Our results reveal that, at the medium and high pace of technological learning, the total costs of electricity production to achieve the long-term renewable energy target are 4–10% lower than the scenario without considering technological learning. With respect to technology, solar PV and wind become competitive with other types of renewables and nuclear. Moreover, the fulfilment of the renewable energy targets decreases CO2 emissions by 25% compared to the reference scenario. Implications of our results indicate that energy policies should focus on the early deployment of renewables, upgrading the grid capacity to accommodate variable renewable energy, and enabling faster local learning.