Assessment of Inbound Air Traffic Flow Management Delay and Total Arrival Delay for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

Abstract

In recent years Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AAS) has been the airport with the highest Airport Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) delay in Europe. EUROCONTROL delays inbound flights heading towards AAS on departure, due to reasons at or around AAS. There are two main reasons for Airport ATFM delay at AAS, Weather and Aerodrome Capacity. This study aims to find a better understanding of the operational conditions that cause ATFM Aerodrome Capacity delay, such that it can be addressed properly. This is done by applying a Bayesian Network (BN) to AAS data, that includes variables from the operational conditions at AAS. The BN shows the relationship between variables and is based on conditional probabilities, so it can show the stochastic behavior of the airport. A baseline model is created using expert knowledge and through Structure Learning (SL), additional relationships between variables are identified which result in a model that best represents the operational data. The results from the BN show that an increased chance of ATFM Aerodrome Capacity delay most often occurs in the first inbound peak of the day when the cumulative delay is still low. In these conditions, the percentage of capacity used according to the schedules is often between 75% and 100%. However, at the actual time of operation the percentage of capacity used is often above 100%, indicating that the available capacity is exceeded. Interestingly, the conditions that increase the chance of having ATFM Aerodrome Capacity delay do not increase the chance of arriving too late. Having an ATFM Aerodrome Capacity delay of 20 to 30 minutes, showed only a 35% chance of arriving with more than 15 minutes of delay. Moreover, there is a discrepancy in the strategic planning of the landing slots, and the actual arriving traffic. Additionally, airlines apply schedule buffers, that could nullify the ATFM Aerodrome Capacity delay, but are unknown to other operators in the air transportation system. More information should be shared between operators to ensure all interests are met and a safe and efficient operation can be realized.