J.M. Hoekstra
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128 records found
1
This study investigates how navigation uncertainty affects conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) for uncrewed aircraft in U-space. Position and velocity errors are modelled as zero-mean Gaussian noise consistent with ADS-L accuracy, and propagated through conflict metrics using Monte Carlo and analytical approximations. Under uncertainty, state-based detection becomes probabilistic. The probability of detection depends on both the level of uncertainty and the encounter geometry, and falls below 50 % when the nominal intrusion time equals the look-ahead. Operationally, detection is re-evaluated over time as the encounter develops, yielding multiple observations with varying probabilities. Two resolution algorithms are compared: Modified Voltage Potential (MVP) and Velocity Obstacle (VO). MVP proves more robust under uncertainty because it explicitly maximises distance at the closest point of approach (CPA). By maximising CPA distance, MVP maintains an outward push and avoids reversal behaviour during the manoeuvre, whereas VO performance degrades at low relative speeds and shallow angles. BlueSky simulations confirm these effects: MVP achieves higher intrusion-prevention rates and larger post-resolution miss distances across conflict scenarios, with its advantage most pronounced at low relative velocity. The findings highlight the importance of maximising CPA distance as a conflict resolution strategy. Moreover, the look-ahead horizon and protected zone can be tuned to achieve a desired target level of safety.
Very-low-level (VLL) urban air operations have been extensively investigated as a solution for mitigating congestion in cities. However, the manner in which the management of such traffic should be performed is still actively investigated. One important component of such a system is the conflict detection and resolution (CD&R), mainly composed of the strategic and tactical CD&R module. While many approaches towards these have been studied, insufficient analysis has been conducted on their compatibility when functioning within a unified, hybrid system. Additionally, their robustness to operational uncertainties such as wind and departure delays is often overlooked. In this work, we investigate the performance of strategic planing methods when combined with tactical CD&R and subjected to a wide range of traffic demand levels and uncertainty conditions. Simulations indicate that the performance of the strategic deconfliction module is highly sensitive to the presence of wind and delay. This decline in performance is partially mitigated by the tactical deconfliction module. Thus, the results suggest that increased use of tactical CD&R could lessen the required level of detail of strategic deconfliction methods, leading to improved compatibility between the two modules.
Open Loop Aircraft Take-off Mass Estimation
An Optimal Trajectory Approach
The mass of an aircraft is crucial for performance-related studies, such as predicting flight trajectories and analyzing flight emissions. In these studies, the flight trajectories are often reconstructed using a point-mass aircraft performance model combined with flight profiles from surveillance data and take-off mass information. However, airlines do not usually disclose take-off mass information, considering its sensitive nature. Thus, aircraft masses often need to be assumed or estimated. This paper presents a simple and computationally effective approach for estimating take-off mass using only open data and models. We explore the strong correlation between take-off mass, flight distance, cruise altitude, and partially, the airspeed during the cruise. The main idea is to generate fuel-optimal trajectories with known masses and distances, and then compare them with actual flight data. The optimal trajectories are generated using the open aircraft performance and optimization library. By assuming that actual flights follow quasi-fuel-optimal trajectories, the take-off mass of a flight can be estimated based on simple regression models trained on the optimal trajectory dataset. This open-loop take-off mass estimation approach requires no proprietary information from aircraft manufacturers or airlines. We verified the model with an anonymized dataset containing actual A320 flights with known take-off mass. Our two- and three-feature multi-linear models yield mean absolute percentage errors of 5.95 % and 4.89 %, respectively. This study is another step forward in open science and a contribution to the aircraft trajectory studies.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a method that has been studied extensively for the task of conflict-resolution and separation management within air traffic control, offering advantages over analytical methods. One key challenge associated with RL for this task is the construction of the input vector. Because the number of agents in the airspace varies, methods that can handle dynamic number of agents are required. Various methods exist, for example, selecting a fixed number of aircraft, or using methods such as recurrent neural networks or attention to encode the information. Multiple studies have shown promising results using these encoder methods, however, studies comparing these methods are limited and the results remain inconclusive on which method works better. To address this issue, this paper compares different input encoding methods: three different attention methods – scaled dot-product, additive and context aware attention – and long short-term memory (LSTM) with three different sorting strategies. These methods are used as input encoders for different models trained with the Soft Actor–Critic algorithm for separation management in high traffic density scenarios. It is found that additive attention is the most effective at increasing the total safety and maximizing path efficiency, outperforming the commonly used scaled dot-product attention and LSTM. Additionally, it is shown that the order of the input sequence significantly impacts the performance of the LSTM based input encoder. This is in contrast with the attention methods, which are sequence-independent and therefore do not suffer from biases introduced by the order of the input sequence.
The concept of urban air mobility is rapidly advancing, with much research being dedicated towards the development of the air traffic management services required for such operations. An important component of unmanned air traffic management (U-space/UTM) is conflict detection and resolution (CD&R), tasked with ensuring the operational safety of such systems. Strategic flight plan optimisation and tactical CD&R methods have generally been studied independently, leading to suboptimal performance when deployed simultaneously in simulated high-density very-low-level constrained urban airspace environments. Furthermore, the limited flexibility of pre-departure 4D trajectory planning methods towards dynamic and uncertain environmental and operational conditions (i.e., wind and delay) produces a degradation in safety that is difficult to mitigate using tactical manoeuvring. In this work, we design a traffic-flow capacity strategic optimisation method that aims to achieve robustness against flight plan deviations and to better complement tactical CD&R manoeuvring. The performance of the proposed strategic and tactical deconfliction module is tested within constrained urban airspace traffic scenarios simulated using the BlueSky Open Air Traffic Simulator. The results are compared with other methods, such as 4D trajectory planning and state-based CD&R.
Conventional Air Traffic Control is still predominantly being done by human Air Traffic Controllers, however, as the traffic density increases, the workload of the controllers increases as well. Especially for the area of unmanned aviation, driven by the rise in drones, having human controllers might become unfeasible. One of the methods that is currently being investigated for replacing the conflict resolution task of Air Traffic Control is Reinforcement Learning. As violation of the required separation margins, also called an intrusion, is an event of relatively low frequency, using Reinforcement Learning for this task comes with difficulties that can potentially be attributed to data imbalance. This paper artificially increased the traffic density during the training phase of the Reinforcement Learning method to investigate what the importance is of a balanced data set on the performance of the Reinforcement Learning method. It was found that as the traffic density increased, the Reinforcement Learning methods started to outperform the analytical methods. Beyond this it was found that methods trained at higher traffic densities, but tested at lower traffic densities, outperformed the methods trained at that specific density. This indicates that it might be better to always ensure that the training scenarios are more complex than anticipated during the execution phase, even if that results in unrealistic scenarios.
Aircraft Cruise Alternative Trajectories Generation
A Mixed RRG-Clustering Approach
Weather obstacles in the airspace can interfere with an aircraft’s flight plan. Pilots, assisted by air traffic controllers (ATCs), perform avoidance maneuvers that can be optimized. This paper addresses the generation of alternative aircraft trajectories to resolve unexpected events. The authors propose a solution based on the RRG algorithm, K-means clustering, and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) similarity metric to address the problem. The mixed algorithm succeeds in generating a set of paths with diversity in an obstacle constrained airspace between Paris-Toulouse and London-Toulouse airports. This tool could help to reduce the workload of pilots and ATCs when such a situation arises.
Many transportation networks have complex infrastructures (road, rail, airspace, etc.). The quality of service in air transportation depends on weather conditions. Technical failures of the aircraft, bad weather conditions, strike of the company’s staff cause delays and disrupt traffic. How can the robustness of such networks be improved? Improving the robustness of air transportation would reduce the cascading delays between airports and improve the passenger journey. Many studies have been done to find critical links and nodes, but not so many analyze the paths. In this paper, we propose a new method to measure network robustness based on alternative paths. Besides improving the robustness of the French (respectively Turkish Airlines and European) low-cost flight network by 19% (respectively 16% and 6.6%), the method attempts to show the relevance of analyzing the network vulnerability from a path-based approach.
U-Space drone operations are expected to be a driver for further urban development, especially through use cases such as medical and commercial parcel delivery. In particular, package delivery using small drones shows great promise, with e-commerce giants such as Amazon deploying limited-scale drone delivery trials in rural areas. As the technology matures, large-scale operations will take place in constrained urban areas, leading to high airborne traffic densities. It is necessary to develop a robust automated separation management system that actively ensures safe separation of drones both in the air and on the ground. This paper focuses on the Strategic element, more specifically on pre-departure planning. The aim of this is to reduce the chance of conflicts around vertiports, where spatial and environmental constraints make tactical resolutions difficult. This work focuses on two scenarios: a single pad for both takeoffs and landings (in a spatially constrained urban area) and 4 takeoff-landing pad pairs (for a distribution center). Several methods are compared for this takeoff sequencing task, coupled with a conflict detection algorithm: A First-Come First-Served method that applied delay to conflicting flights, a Mixed-Integer Programming approach, a Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Algorithm and Simulated Annealing were used. For a single-pad approach, first-come first-served works best in terms of computation time and total deployment time (or makespan). For the multi-pad approach however, changing the flight sequence through metaheurisitic methods and mixed-integer linear programming show a reduction in total deployment time.
Contrail optimization offers an efficient and cost-effective way for aviation to immediately reduce its climate impact. Open-source optimization, wherein the contrail and emission effects are balanced based on meteorological open data, has been presented in previous work. However, prior research overlooks the importance of using forecasting data, as opposed to post-processed reanalysis data. For contrail optimization to be implementable, forecasting data needs to be available at a sufficient quality in the flight planning stage in order to perform the optimization. In this paper, a fully open non-linear optimal control flight optimization is implemented and applied using both forecasting and reanalysis data. A total of 120 days (175.440 flights) of flight data from OpenSky are used in the analysis. We show that forecasts with larger lookahead times (up to 12 hours) are equally effective when compared to more recent forecasts (1 hour lookahead time) for contrail optimization, with equally high accuracy. However, when compared to more accurate post-processed reanalysis data, there are considerable differences in predicted contrails formed. This research shows there is still a long way to go before we can actually implement contrail optimal flight planning.
U-space/UTM operations are considered an integral part of the future development of cities, with applications ranging from package delivery to urban air mobility. However, this new complex environment also poses challenges for the conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) process, especially if aircraft will have to navigate above the existing street network due to privacy and obstacle constraints. The research at hand aims to investigate how information about the environment and other aircraft can be used to improve the performance of CD&R methods in constrained urban airspace. For this, three algorithms are developed and tested, each with different levels of information availability: the first solely uses current state information for conflict solving, the second includes additional information about the urban environment within the CD&R process, and the last also incorporates trajectory intent data to solve conflicts. These methods are tested within simulations of urban air traffic scenarios at various demand and wind levels to determine their safety and efficiency performance. Results show the use of street geometry information benefits the resolution process greatly, increasing the safety level while minimally affecting efficiency. Intent information is shown to not be critical for achieving this.
Dynamic Capacity Balancing in Urban Airspace
Comparing Historical and Real-time Aggregate Flow Data
As urban ground transportation congestion increases, there is growing interest in urban air transportation, such as delivery drones and air taxis. However, managing air traffic in densely populated urban areas poses significant challenges, which require effective flight planning, separation management, and airspace design. This paper investigates dynamic capacity balancing methods to manage air traffic in constrained urban airspace, where drones must fly above the existing road network. Specifically, it compares the effectiveness of labelling high-complexity zones using historical data versus real-time aggregate flow data. The results indicate that while both approaches reduce airspace intrusions and improve safety, the best approach depends on traffic demand levels. At lower demand levels, using historical data yields better safety outcomes, whereas using real-time data is more effective at higher demand levels due to its flexibility. At their best, both methods increase the travel distance by less than 6% while reducing airspace intrusions by 30% compared to a case without dynamic capacity balancing.
Flight Optimization for Contrails and Emissions
A Large-Scale Trade-off Analysis Using Open Data and Models
Decentralised Traffic Management for Constrained Urban Airspace
Dynamically Generating and Acting Upon Aggregate Flow Data