Dealing with uncertainty in the challenge of the energy transition
S. Toonen (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
M.H. Hermans – Graduation committee member (Design & Construction Management)
M.G.C. Bosch-Rekveldt – Mentor (TU Delft - Integral Design & Management)
L.S.W. Koops – Mentor (Design & Construction Management)
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Abstract
Building upon a conceptual framework of elements that play a role in the management of uncertainties, an empirical study was performed to learn about the uncertainties in the energy transition. For this, interviews were held and an expert panel was organized.
It was found that uncertainty is an unavoidable element of project management. It is a lack of knowledge about something and its probability of occurrence and potential outcome are usually unquantifiable and immeasurable. Uncertainty is a dynamic concept of which the magnitude decreases over time as more information becomes available. Its presence complicates the management of projects as this means choices need to be made without all relevant information. Literature further showed that uncertainty management consists of different core elements: identification, classification and the act of dealing with uncertainties.
The interviews showed that currently uncertainties are not purposely handled. Based on examples and context, it could however be concluded that elements of uncertainty management are subconsciously applied. Unknowingly in the sense that they are often not used to tackle uncertainties specifically, but risks instead. The empirical study also aimed to identify the differences between the conventional energy industry and the energy transition industry. This was done to determine whether these differences would lead to necessary adaptations in the project management approach.
The final conclusion of the research is that first and foremost, the management approach should be complemented with an uncertainty management plan that extends current risk management practices. The management of uncertainties should include an identification and classification procedure before deciding on the way of dealing with uncertainties, accompanied by an appropriate response. As uncertainty develops over time, monitoring of uncertainties should be done on a regular basis throughout the duration of a project. The overall management approach thus requires a flexible attitude so that changes in the management process of a project can be made if deemed suitable or necessary.