Climate change mitigation policy alternatives and citizens' preferences trade-offs

Abstract

Climate change is a topic being addressed by many countries worldwide. One of the most recent treaties is the Paris Agreement signed in 2015 by 196 parties, where they agree on a common goal: restrict global warming to be climate-neutral by 2050. Peru by being one of the signing parties that played a relevant role before and during the Paris Agreement discussions, submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions in 2016.

Even when climate policies are implemented, their success is found to be related to society's acceptance of them. Moreover, citizens' support for policies is related to the alignment of such policies with their preferences, and research shows that citizens' preferences are based on their values. Additionally, it is known that there are balanced tensions between values, which are translated into trade-offs. Different participatory methods have been used for preference elicitation. In Peru, however, it has been found that the processes followed have an apparent entry barrier for individuals, therefore, other methods can be explored. A recently developed method is Participatory Value Evaluation, in which the participants are asked to make a selection among a set of alternatives while considering its effects and one or more restrictions. This method has been mainly applied in Europe, with some of them being focused on climate change subjects. Based on this the primary and secondary research questions are defined as:

1. How do Peruvian citizens trade-off climate change mitigation measures among the two most polluting sectors, from a set of policy alternatives?
2. How is Participatory Value Evaluation perceived by Peruvian citizens and how does it differ from Dutch citizens' perception?

Based on the literature review done regarding the method, a Participatory Value Evaluation experiment is designed using the knowledge gathered from the research on the climate policy situation in Peru and its region. This includes a total of six policy measures part of the country's two most polluting sectors (i.e., Energy and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use). The designed Participatory Value Evaluation is conducted between July 3rd and July 17th, 2023.

It can be concluded that Peruvian citizens prefer policy alternatives that yield positive and direct environmental outcomes, especially when accompanied by minimal monetary expense. Citizens would trade off a higher cost for even a moderate reduction in harmful emissions, provided the health benefits are explicitly articulated. The inclination to make a trade-off between cost and emission reduction diminishes when health and environmental benefits are either not explicitly outlined or fail to reach a significant threshold. Finally, based on the preference patterns of the individuals, four distinct groups were identified. These are mainly dependent on their considerations of the effects each policy alternative may bring. These insights reinforce the importance individuals across different education levels, attribute to the environment, particularly regarding deforestation.

Regarding the method, it can be concluded that Peruvian citizens had a positive and favourable experience when participating in the PVE for climate change mitigation. In a similar manner to the Dutch citizens, Peruvian individuals exhibited a positive perception of the method. In like manner, a majority of individuals believed it is a good method to involve citizens in governmental decisions regarding climate change policies. These insights seem to foster an inclination for continued engagement and provide their opinion on other subjects relevant to Peruvian society. Equally important, citizens would appreciate the real repercussions resulting from their input within the decision-making process.