Integrating Physical Climate Risks in Real Estate Development
A systematic analysis of Dutch developer decision-making
M.E.A. Algie (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)
Michaël Peeters – Mentor (TU Delft - Real Estate Management)
Maged Elsamny – Mentor (TU Delft - Urban Development Management)
M.F. Villalba Muñoz – Mentor
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Abstract
As climate risks become more frequent and severe, real estate developers are increasingly expected to incorporate climate adaptation into their projects. However, within Dutch practice, it remains unclear whether – and how – physical climate risks such as heat stress, water nuisance, flooding, and foundation issues are accounted for in development decisions. This thesis investigates how climate risks are currently addressed in Dutch real estate development and identifies the key factors shaping developers' responsiveness. Based on twelve semi-structured interviews with developers, investors, a municipality, and a bank, the research reveals a fragmented governance context, where stakeholder priorities diverge and early-stage incentives for adaptation are often lacking.
A synthesis of stakeholder perspectives shows that while public and financial actors are becoming more aware of climate risks, their capacity and willingness to act vary significantly depending on the risk in question. A stakeholder–risk matrix was developed to illustrate these diverging positions. In addition, a visualisation of the developer’s trajectory identifies critical phases in which climate risks could be embedded more proactively. The findings indicate that adaptation is rarely considered during the initiative and feasibility stages – when flexibility is highest – unless it is enforced through regulation or financial conditions.
The research concludes that successful integration of climate risks requires not only technical
solutions or financial means, but timely alignment across key actors. Developers can play a pivotal role by initiating early engagement with municipalities, investors, and banks, tailored to their respective concerns regarding specific climate risks. By embedding adaptation measures early in the process, developers can avoid costly late-stage revisions and external pressures. The study offers practical recommendations for developers and public actors to improve early-stage climate risk integration in the built environment.