The Future of Critical Metals in Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Climate change stands as a monumental environmental challenge confronting the world today, with ongoing global manifestations. Within the transportation sector, the carbon-intense essence of petroleum-powered vehicles, finite fossil fuel reserves, and strides in technologies such as batteries, fuel cells, power electronics, and electric motors have expedited the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the conventional automobile market.
The escalating demand for crucial metals within renewable energy technology sectors has raised alarms regarding supply chain security. It is imperative to fortify the sustained and secure provision of these pivotal metals to ensure the forthcoming viability of EVs. Numerous nations have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, intensifying the future prominence of renewables, and underscoring the significance of securing metal supplies for EVs to meet the 2050 demand amid competing technological contenders.
Multiple knowledge gaps and challenges encompass the repercussions of EV proliferation on essential metal resources. Prevailing studies on metal scarcity focus on various scenarios, yet few target the exponentially surging demand for these metals stemming from the EV surge. While geological reserve perspectives have scrutinized metal criticality for EVs, this approach lacks a comprehensive panorama, neglecting influential factors such as geopolitics and competing demand. Furthermore, there exists scant exploration of alternative remedies to diminish reliance on critical metals within EVs and their consequences for metal supply chains. The feasibility of these alternatives hinges on their impact on vehicular performance, a determinant factor for broad acceptance.
The primary objective of this research is to address the inquiry: "How does the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles affect the availability of vital metals, and what strategies can be adopted to alleviate potential supply impediments?"
This research pursues a four-tier approach. Initial efforts involve delineating criticality for EVs and devising an analytical framework that encompasses diverse perspectives beyond geological reserves. A comprehensive review identifies socio-technical metrics instrumental in assessing metal criticality and their contributions to EV-related criticality. This informs the development of an analytical model, rooted in established frameworks, to evaluate metal criticality for EVs. The model then undergoes validation through expert interviews.
Subsequently, the research identifies potential bottlenecks in critical metal supply. Essential metals for EV functioning are identified through literature analysis. Building upon prior work by Habib et al., the research delves into geopolitical reserves and integrates future demand scenarios. Each metal within scope undergoes individual analysis, considering geopolitics and competitive demand, utilizing literature reviews to uncover potential supply bottlenecks by 2050.
The third stage concentrates on recognizing critical metals from the analytical model results and outlining alternative strategies to alleviate supply bottlenecks. Insights from academic and industry experts, garnered through interviews, illuminate the feasibility of alternative technologies and their metal consumption implications. Varied battery configurations and trade-offs are explored, employing a semi-structured interview approach to ensure thorough data capture.
Lastly, the research aspires to actualize alternative pathways to mitigate prospective supply bottlenecks. This involves examining existing practices that imperil suggested solutions and probing promising remedies to these challenges. The technological readiness of these solutions is gauged, considering their effects on EV design and performance. Policy approaches by global leaders, coupled with identified bottlenecks and solutions, inform actionable recommendations.
The pivotal factors impacting metal criticality for EVs encompass Geological Reserve availability to meet 2050 EV demand, Competing Demand Sectors, and a spectrum of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors. An analytical model is formulated to evaluate metal criticality through each of these lenses. Key metals identified as vital for EV functionality are Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Aluminium, and Rare Earth Metals (REES).
From the analytical results, potential supply bottlenecks emerge for Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, and REEs, stemming from diverse combinations of factors within the model. Expert interviews unearth alternative paths to circumvent these bottlenecks, including substituting REE-containing Permanent Magnet Synchronous (PSM) motors with other technologies, short-term adoption of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) batteries, and long-term integration of alternative battery chemistries like Sodium-ion, Potassium-ion, and Solid-State Electrolyte batteries.
The readiness of these technologies is evaluated, alongside scrutiny of policies regarding Critical Raw Material supply and Net-Zero emissions, as observed in global leader initiatives such as the European Union. Drawing from this analysis, a compilation of recommendations is outlined for Global policymakers, EV manufacturers, and EV users. These suggestions seek to accelerate the integration of these alternative technologies within the Electric Vehicle Industry. The proposed strategies to veer away from metals susceptible to supply bottlenecks are summarized, culminating in practical recommendations for stakeholders, manufacturers, and policymakers.