Day-ahead Wind Power Predictions at Regional Scales
Post-processing Operational Weather Forecasts with a Hybrid Neural Network
Sukanta Basu (TU Delft - Atmospheric Remote Sensing)
Simon J. Watson (TU Delft - Wind Energy)
Eric Lacoa Lacoa Arends (Student TU Delft)
Bedassa Cheneka (TU Delft - Wind Energy)
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Abstract
A hybrid neural network model, comprising of a convolutional neural network and a multilayer perceptron network, has been developed for day-ahead forecasting of regional scale wind power production. This model requires operational weather forecasts as input and also has the capability to ingest data from ensemble forecasts. Even though the training of the model requires significant computational cost, the actual forecasting can be done within a few minutes on any recent personal computer. The proposed model has demonstrated noteworthy performance at a recent international forecasting competition.