Predicting the spatial distribution of direct economic losses from typhoon storm surge disasters using case-based reasoning

Abstract

Predicting the spatial distribution of direct economic losses from typhoon storm surge disasters is crucial for supporting emergency response efforts. Using case-based reasoning, we developed a preliminary method for completing predictions about the impact of typhoon storm surge disasters for multiple coastal regions. We proposed retrieval, reuse, and revision algorithms to predict the following effects of a typhoon storm surge disaster: total direct economic losses and their grades, the affected regions, and individual direct economic losses and their grades in each affected region. We tested 33 such disaster cases using the developed method, and the predicted results were as follows. In about 70% of the cases, all recorded affected regions were predicted; the grades of the total direct economic losses were accurate in over 70% of the cases; in 63% of the cases, the grades of direct economic losses in each affected region were partly accurate, and they were all accurate in 30% of the cases. These promising results suggest that the proposed method can support disaster managers to respond adequately to typhoon storm surge disasters for multiple coastal regions.