Probabilistic assessment of integrated safety and security related abnormal events

Abstract

Conventional risk assessment of chemical plants considers process accident related causal factors. In the current geopolitical situation, chemical plants have become the target of terrorism attacks, making security concerns as important as safety. To protect the public and environment from undue risks, security related causal factors need to be considered as part of the risk analysis of chemical plants. This paper presents an integrated approach to dynamically assess the occurrence probability of abnormal events. The abnormal event is a state of a process plant arrived either due to a process accident or an intentional (terrorist) threat. This approach considers both safety and security related risk factors in a unified framework. A Bayesian network is used to model specific evolution scenarios of process accidents directly initiated from security related factors and the interaction of causal factors. This model enables to dynamically analyze the occurrence probabilities of abnormal events and causal factors given evidence; it could also capture the impacts of interaction among safety and security related causal factors on these occurrence probabilities. The proposed approach is applied to an oil storage tank to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness. It is observed that the effect of dependency between correlative accidental and security related factors significantly change the occurrence probability of abnormal events in dynamical assessment.