Integrating land markets, land management, and ecosystem function in a model of land change

Abstract

We present the conceptual design of a new land-change modelling framework that builds on previous land-change research and models (i.e. ALMA, SOME, DEED). The design integrates agents of land change, land-market mechanisms, land-management behaviour and its ecosystem impacts, and land-policy scenarios into a single framework that can be used to address questions about land-change processes in exurban environments. The framework is implemented in Java, built using the Repast Simphony agent-based libraries within the Eclipse integrated development environment. The framework serves as a platform for integrating human and natural processes, as well as data that include social surveys of residential landscape and neighbourhood preferences as well as landmanagement behaviours, ecological field measurements of biomass in residential property parcels, interpretations of historical air photographs, and economic and household data acquired from local governments in Southeastern Michigan. The purpose of the framework is to provide an overarching design that can be extended into specific model implementations that evaluate, among other questions, how policy, land-management preferences, and land-market dynamics affect land-use and land-cover change patterns and subsequent carbon storage and flux.