Agent-based modelling in energy scenario development

Abstract

In order to determine how the energy sector of the Netherlands can or should look in the future, energy scenarios are used to explore possible alternative futures. Many scenarios for the Netherlands exist, but a classification of contemporary Dutch electricity scenarios is missing. Additionally, agent-based modelling (ABM) has often been proposed for energy scenario development as it is able to model the uncertain behaviour of energy companies, which is not possible in more traditional energy scenario models. However, a recent publication of the impacts of the Dutch climate agreement seems to suggest that agent-based modelling is not yet used to develop energy scenarios in the Netherlands. This research first classified Dutch energy scenarios for 2030 which are focused on the electricity sector. Additionally, it analysed two Dutch energy scenario with EMLab, an agent-based model. The agent-based model was able to replicate the scenario results when the inputs of that scenario were used. Additionally, it showed how uncertain behaviour would cause overinvestments and what measures can be used to impact this behaviour. The results show that ABM can and should be used to support scenario development for the Netherlands.