Time-Series Forecasting with Hybrid Federated Learning
A Personalized Approach to Collaboration
J.R. Vega Sanchez (TU Delft - Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
Y. Chen – Mentor (TU Delft - Data-Intensive Systems)
Rihan Hai – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Web Information Systems)
Thiago Guzella – Mentor (ASML)
Aditya Shankar – Mentor (TU Delft - Data-Intensive Systems)
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Abstract
Collaborative efforts in Predictive Maintenance and Control can be beneficial for manufacturers and customers in industrial environments. However, these efforts are challenged by the need for multi-dimensional sharing of information about the same type (horizontal) and piece (vertical) of equipment, privacy restrictions and the presence of heterogeneous data distributions across participants.
Existing solutions have addressed some of these challenges for forecasting or different purposes but there lacks a comprehensive approach that handles all of them for time series forecasting. To solve this problem, we introduce Time-series-based Personalized Hybrid Federated Learning (TPHFL), a hybrid federated learning (FL) strategy that combines Horizontal FL and Vertical FL to enable multi-level knowledge exchange while preserving data privacy. All participants use a personalization mechanism to make predictions that better suit their underlying data distribution.
Our approach employs a distributed model to handle vertical privacy constraints and addresses data heterogeneity across equipment through a personalisation mechanism. Through extensive experiments on four public and one industry-specific datasets, we show that TPHFL outperforms independent learning scenarios by 27.2%, providing a strong incentive for parties to collaborate.
We demonstrate the effectiveness of personalisation by showing an accuracy improvement of up to 42.7% when comparing TPHFL with personalisation to TPHFL without personalisation, and 32.7% when comparing traditional HFL methods to HFL with personalisation. Additionally, we evaluate a different configuration for personalisation and perform a detailed hyperparameter analysis to better understand the behaviour of TPHFL in different contexts.