Crossing the valley of death

Abstract

In recent years, development of a concept from the mid- 1970's has led to the emergence of Airborne Wind Energy Systems (AWES). Currently the AWES sector encompasses dozens of companies that are developing a range of concepts of, more or less automated, flying wings attached to a tether which convert wind energy to electricity. At the time of this writing however, AWE as a technology discipline is still in early stages of development; not a single company has been capable of producing a commercially ready system. This phase, where the primary goal is to commercialise technology, is described as the 'valley of death' as here the risk of failure is high. In literature this phase has gathered attention from a policy perspective, however the perspective of the entrepreneur is scarcely researched. This research will attempt to find an answer to the problems that entrepreneurs encounter in the valley of death.

The valley of death is defined as: A phase that occurs during commercialisation of technology where a combination of long and costly development and a lack of resources cause an environment where the risk of failure is high for organisations to introduce the first commercial product.This definition, combined with a literature review on challenges that are likely to occur in this phase, forms the context that defines the strategies.In four expert interviews with private sector investors and experienced entrepreneurs, this context is discussed. The findings from these interviews are combined with insights from literature to identify three likely challenges: 1) technology uncertainty, which is caused by the inherent complexity of hardware development and production, which result in long and costly development. 2) market uncertainty, which is caused by difficulties in matching technology characteristics to market needs, hesitance by other stakeholders or competing against an incumbent regime and 3) lack of financial resources, which is the result of high costs during the commercialisation of hardware technology and a tendency to under invest by the private sector. In order to identify a possible way to deal with these answers findings from a separate literature review and from the four expert interviews are combined. From this, eight strategies emerge.The findings in this analysis show that activities belonging to all seven functions are found in the AWES TIS. Possible barriers are found in functions five and six. There is little to no market formation, only through technology push by the entrepreneurs. Resources are considered scarce for development and AWES technology development is costly and long. These barriers are similar to the challenges and characteristics of the valley of death.

Concluding on the main research question the valley of death was redefined from the perspective of the technology developer, including multiple perspectives. It is characterised by a low availability of resources and organisations that develop hardware based technology are at risk of failing to commercialise. By identifying and testing common strategies for their applicability this research was able to provide a way to reduce the risk of failure in this phase. Start-ups that develop new technologies must prioritise commercialisation of their technology by focusing on minimum development towards specific needs in order to generate revenue. However, for hardware based innovation external resources are needed to fund development. By demonstrating the ability to find value these start-ups increase the chance to appeal to investors in the private sector and secure the necessary funding.