Uncertainty quantification in steady state simulations of a molten salt system using polynomial chaos expansion analysis

Uncertainty quantification in steady state simulations of a molten salt system using polynomial chaos expansion analysis

Santanoceto, M. (TU Delft RST/Reactor Physics and Nuclear Materials; Politecnico di Torino)
Tiberga, M. (TU Delft RST/Reactor Physics and Nuclear Materials)
Perko, Z. (TU Delft RST/Reactor Physics and Nuclear Materials)
Dulla, Sandra (Politecnico di Torino)
Lathouwers, D. (TU Delft RST/Reactor Physics and Nuclear Materials)

Margulis, Marat (editor)
Blaise, Partrick (editor)

2020

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of numerical simulations is highly relevant in the study and design of complex systems. Among the various approaches available, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) analysis has recently attracted great interest. It belongs to non-intrusive spectral projection methods and consists of constructing system responses as polynomial functions of the stochastic inputs. The limited number of required model evaluations and the possibility to apply it to codes without any modification make this technique extremely attractive. In this work, we propose the use of PCE to perform UQ of complex, multi-physics models for liquid fueled reactors, addressing key design aspects of neutronics and thermal fluid dynamics. Our PCE approach uses Smolyak sparse grids designed to estimate the PCE coefficients. To test its potential, the PCE method was applied to a 2D problem representative of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor physics. An in-house multi-physics tool constitutes the reference model. The studied responses are the maximum temperature and the effective multiplication factor. Results, validated by comparison with the reference model on 10³ Monte-Carlo sampled points, prove the effectiveness of our PCE approach in assessing uncertainties of complex coupled models.

Molten salt reactor
Multi-physics
Non-intrusive
Polynomial chaos expansion
Sensitivity analysis
Sparse grids
Uncertainty quantification

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:21558b0e-fa80-4a91-940d-61e72035e52b

https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202124715008

EDP Sciences - Web of Conferences

9781713827245

International Conference on Physics of Reactors: Transition to a Scalable Nuclear Future, PHYSOR 2020

2020 International Conference on Physics of Reactors: Transition to a Scalable Nuclear Future, PHYSOR 2020, 2020-03-28 → 2020-04-02, Cambridge, United Kingdom

International Conference on Physics of Reactors: Transition to a Scalable Nuclear Future, PHYSOR 2020, 2020-March

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2020 M. Santanoceto, M. Tiberga, Z. Perko, Sandra Dulla, D. Lathouwers