Predicting major accidents in the process industry based on the barrier status at scenario level

Predicting major accidents in the process industry based on the barrier status at scenario level: A practical approach

Schmitz, P.J.H. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; OCI-Nitrogen)
Swuste, P.H.J.J. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science)
Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science)
van Nunen, K.L.L. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; Universiteit Antwerpen)

2021

OCI Nitrogen wants to gain knowledge of (leading) indicators regarding the process safety performance of their ammonia production process. This paper answers the question whether indicators can be derived from the barrier system status to provide information about the development and likelihood of the major accident processes in the ammonia production process. The accident processes are visualized as scenarios in bowties. This research focuses on the status of the preventive barriers on the left-hand side of the bowtie. Both the quality – expressed in reliability/availability and effectiveness – and the activation of the barrier system give an indication of the development of the accident scenarios and the likelihood of the central event. This likelihood is calculated as a loss of risk reduction compared to the original design. The calculation results in an indicator called “preventive barrier indicator”, which should initiate further action. Based on an example, it is demonstrated which actions should be taken and what their urgency is.

Ammonia
Barrier
Bowtie
Indicator
Process safety
Scenario

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2b4aa3ef-af93-4d40-948a-26cb3c24b96b

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104519

0950-4230

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety, 71

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 P.J.H. Schmitz, P.H.J.J. Swuste, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, K.L.L. van Nunen