Print Email Facebook Twitter Fragility Curves for Dikes in the Western Scheldt Title Fragility Curves for Dikes in the Western Scheldt: Assessing the Applicability of Typology-Based Fragility Curves in assessing Dike Reinforcement Cost for Coastal Dikes Author van Woudenberg, Jaïr (TU Delft Civil Engineering & Geosciences) Contributor Kok, M. (mentor) Mai Van, C. (mentor) Rutten, M.M. (mentor) Drost, M. L. (mentor) Fiolet, D. G. (mentor) Degree granting institution Delft University of Technology Programme Civil Engineering | Hydraulic Engineering Date 2023-07-07 Abstract The sea level is rising, possibly by one meter, by the end of this century. The Netherlands is preparing for this scenario through Kennisprogramma Zeespiegelstijging (KP-ZSS). One of the goals is to determine the hydraulic effects of sea level rise (SLR) on the current system. For the flood risk analysis withinKP-ZSS, the current strength of the flood defences needs to be described. A set of typology-defined fragility curves based on river dikes in river areas describes the current strength of all the primary flood defences in the Netherlands. However, it is unknown if these fragility curves are applicable to sea dikesdue to shorter high water and differences in soil parameters in sea/tidal areas. The research described in this thesis aims to evaluate if site-specific fragility curves for sea dikes result in significantly different predictions of future reinforcement cost for sea dikes compared to the typology-defined fragility curves. The analysis is centred around three dike sections in trajectories 29-3, 30-3 and 32-4 in the Western Scheldt. Initially, an evaluation is conducted on the fragility curves related to the geotechnical failure mechanisms of macro-instability and backward erosion piping. Subsequently, the height requirement is taken into account during the cost calculation. The typology-defined fragility curves underestimate the strength of macro-stability in two out of threecases with a factor 104 and factor 102, while underestimating it for one section with a factor 105. For the piping failure mechanism the typology-definde fragility curves overestimate the strength in two out of the three cases with a factor 103 and factor 102, but underestimates it for one section with a factor 103.The pre-overburden pressure appeared to be the most important factor influencing the failure probability of the macro-stability failure mechanism, with higher occurring values for the sections in the WesternScheldt. The failure mechanism of piping was influenced most by the hydraulic conductivity, where theencountered soil in the Western Scheldt consisted of finer soils with lower hydraulic conductivity.From the results, it can be concluded that the use of site-specific fragility curves resulted in a decrease of 13% in net present value, averaging over all SLR scenarios for an analysis until 2200. Considering the most probable SLR scenario resulted in a 12% decrease. If the height requirement is included in the cost calculation, the use of site-specific fragility curves results in a 7% decrease in net present value on average and a 12% decrease for SLR scenario low. For the low SLR scenario, the cost of relocating the road infrastructure in and around the expansion zone of the dike is dominant. With increasing SLR scenarios, the increase in crest height becomes the most important factor, with the revetment the dominating factor cost-wise, leading to minimal differences in reinforcement cost between the fragilitycurve approaches. Subject Fragility curvesSea level riseDike reinforcementMacro-stabilityPipingKennisprogramma ZeespiegelstijgingOKADERReliability analysisFlood risk To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3eb5ac2f-eec6-4829-92af-ff9e9efcbde4 Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights © 2023 Jaïr van Woudenberg Files PDF MSc_Thesis_JMvanWoudenberg.pdf 32.25 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:3eb5ac2f-eec6-4829-92af-ff9e9efcbde4/datastream/OBJ/view