Print Email Facebook Twitter Efficient Assessment of Electricity Distribution Network Adequacy with the Cross-Entropy Method Title Efficient Assessment of Electricity Distribution Network Adequacy with the Cross-Entropy Method Author Betge, J.N. (Student TU Delft) Droste, Barbera (Alliander) Heres, Jacco (Alliander) Tindemans, Simon H. (TU Delft Intelligent Electrical Power Grids) Date 2021 Abstract Identifying future congestion points in electricity distribution networks is an important challenge distribution system operators face. A proven approach for addressing this challenge is to assess distribution grid adequacy using probabilistic models of future demand. However, computational cost can become a severe challenge when evaluating large probabilistic electricity demand forecasting models with long forecasting horizons. In this paper, Monte Carlo methods are developed to increase the computational efficiency of obtaining asset overload probabilities from a bottom-up stochastic demand model. Cross-entropy optimised importance sampling is contrasted with conventional Monte Carlo sampling. Benchmark results of the proposed methods suggest that the importance sampling-based methods introduced in this work are suitable for estimating rare overload probabilities for assets with a small number of customers. Subject adequacy assessmentcross-entropy methoddemand modellingdistribution networksimportance sampling To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:644074cb-e479-4d65-a2f8-05e813661e70 DOI https://doi.org/10.1109/PowerTech46648.2021.9494891 Embargo date 2022-01-29 ISBN 978-1-6654-3597-0 Source 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech, PowerTech 2021 - Conference Proceedings Event 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech, 2021-06-28 → 2021-07-02, Virtual/online event Series 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech, PowerTech 2021 - Conference Proceedings Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights © 2021 J.N. Betge, Barbera Droste, Jacco Heres, Simon H. Tindemans Files PDF Efficient_Assessment_of_E ... Method.pdf 1.66 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:644074cb-e479-4d65-a2f8-05e813661e70/datastream/OBJ/view