Safety Assessment of Process Systems using Fuzzy Extended Bow Tie (FEBT) Model

Journal article (2019)

Authors

Esmaeil Zarei Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Mohammad Yazdi University of Lisbon
N. Khakzad Rostami Safety and Security Science - TPM
G.L.L.M.E. Reniers Safety and Security Science - TPM , Universiteit Antwerpen
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2019 Esmaeil Zarei, Mohammad Yazdi, N. Khakzad, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3303/CET1977172
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Published Date

2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

Risk analysis in process systems is very important to design effective strategies for preventing and mitigating potential major accidents. Although conventional techniques as Bow-tie (BT) have widely been used in risk assessment of process systems, they fall short in effectively modelling epistemic uncertainty which is prevailing in risk assessment of process systems. The present study is aimed at alleviating this shortcoming by incorporating fuzzy set theory into BT, developing a so-called fuzzy extended Bow tie (FEBT) model. FEBT, compared with previous fuzzy BT methods, uses the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and thus provides a more accurate cause – consequence model of accident scenarios. A natural gas transmission network is used to demonstrate the application of FEBT.

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