COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system

COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: Growth, open access and scientific fields

Nane, G.F. (TU Delft Applied Probability)
Robinson Garcia, N. (University of Granada)
van Schalkwyk, François (Stellenbosch University)
Torres-Salinas, Daniel (University of Granada)

2022

We model the growth of scientific literature related to COVID-19 and forecast the expected growth from 1 June 2021. Considering the significant scientific and financial efforts made by the research community to find solutions to end the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented volume of scientific outputs is being produced. This questions the capacity of scientists, politicians and citizens to maintain infrastructure, digest content and take scientifically informed decisions. A crucial aspect is to make predictions to prepare for such a large corpus of scientific literature. Here we base our predictions on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models using the Dimensions database. This source has the particularity of including in the metadata information on the date in which papers were indexed. We present global predictions, plus predictions in three specific settings: by type of access (Open Access), by domain-specific repository (SSRN and MedRxiv) and by several research fields. We conclude by discussing our findings.

COVID-19
Dimensions
Growth of science
Open access
Scientific publications

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79476996-e77f-42e1-b3a4-e08f8ed89a5b

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04536-x

0138-9130

Scientometrics: an international journal for all quantitative aspects of the science of science, communication in science and science policy, 128 (1), 345-362

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2022 G.F. Nane, N. Robinson Garcia, François van Schalkwyk, Daniel Torres-Salinas