Title
Time-dependent earthquake-fire coupling fragility analysis under limited prior knowledge: A perspective from type-2 fuzzy probability
Author
Men, Jinkun (South China University of Technology; Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
Chen, Guohua (South China University of Technology; Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety)
Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; Universiteit Antwerpen) 
Date
2024
Abstract
Earthquake-triggered fire domino scenarios (E-FDSs) arise frequently from the interaction between earthquakes and chemical installations, resulting in catastrophic multi-hazard coupling events. The complicated mutually amplified phenomena between natural disasters and chemical accidents significantly aggravates the escalation of domino accidents, which has posed great challenges for modeling and preventing E-FDSs. Under this impetus, this work proposes an advanced type-2 fuzzy probabilistic methodology to obtain the time-dependent failure probability of steel cylindrical tanks (SCTs) subjected to the earthquake-fire sequence. To cope with the limited prior knowledge on E-FDSs, a basic universal is established to describe the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage. The coupling failure criterion of SCTs is formulated by a type-2 fuzzy time-dependent limit state equation. A credibility-based stochastic simulation algorithm is developed for the hybrid uncertainty analysis (combining ambiguity and stochasticity). The proposed methodology is validated by case studies of a 5000 m3 fixed roof tank. Compared to the existing accident probability model, the proposed methodology can not only capture the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage but also provide a dynamic estimation of tank failure probability with respect to the fire exposure time. The proposed methodology can effectively and dynamically capture the accident evolution process, which in turn helps mitigate and prevent the spatiotemporal propagation of domino effects.
Subject
Chemical Industrial Parks
Chemical Process Safety
Earthquake-triggered Fire Domino Scenarios
Multi-hazard Coupling Events
Steel Cylindrical Tank
Type-2 Fuzzy Possibility Theory
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7990a9cb-3423-42dc-9dd3-139c4ac259f2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2024.01.011
Embargo date
2024-07-06
ISSN
0957-5820
Source
Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 183, 274-292
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 Jinkun Men, Guohua Chen, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers