An Assessment of the Cultivated Meat Innovation System in the USA and Europe

Abstract

This thesis compares the state of the cultivated meat (CM) industry in the USA and Europe. To do so, extensive desk-research was conducted, summarising existing data, and 21 interviews with CM experts were held. The result is an analysis comprised of both quantitative and qualitative data. In this thesis, the CM industry was understood as technological innovation system (TIS), a framework often used to analyse emerging industries. To compare the state of the CM industry in the USA and Europe, three research questions were answered. The first was: What is the structure of the cultivated meat innovation system, specifically its technology, actors and networks, and institutions? To answer this research question, a review of CM’s technology, an overview of actors and their associated networks and of the institutions governing CM is provided. The answer to this research question is in summary that CM is a nascent technology with many uncertainties from a technological standpoint, that its actor networks are still emerging, and that the regulatory framework is relatively clear in both the USA and Europe. The second research question was: How does the functional performance of the cultivated meat innovation system compare in the assessed regions? To answer this research questions, seven functions provided by the TIS framework were analysed. These seven functions are argued to influence the development of an innovation in a given region, and comprise for instance Knowledge Development and Diffusion, Entrepreneurial Activity, or the Venture Capital Availability. The answer to this research question is in summary that the USA is leading across all assessed indicators. The CM industry is clearly leading in the USA over Europe. The only indicator on which Europe is leading is public research output on CM. The third and last research question was: What themes with importance to the near-time development of the cultivated meat industry can be identified? To answer this research question, a thematic analysis was applied to the interview content that could not already be understood through the lens of the TIS framework. The answer to this research question is in summary that there are two important challenges for CM: the development of its technological system, and the development of its supply chain. For the technological system, specifically, the main challenge is to reduce costs. For the supply chain, interviewees identified the development of a work division in the industry of high importance, although this appears to be already partially under way. After presenting the results, an extensive discussion is provided. Two points of the findings are particularly worthwhile to point out. Firstly, the dominant role of the USA compared to Europe. Although this thesis indicates that the USA is clearly leading compared to Europe, the results should not be overinterpreted. The number of CM start-ups in both regions is identical, although the US’ start-ups appear more advanced; and, as already mentioned, the public research output is stronger in Europe. Whether the CM industry will actually be focused in the USA remains to be seen, and the dices have not yet fallen. Secondly, there appears to be an “technology battle” between plant-based meat (PBM) and CM upcoming. In this context, it may come that PBM will evolve as “dominant design” for unstructured 2D products, such as burger patties, while CM may evolve as “dominant design” for structured 3D products, such as steak. Yet, this poses the challenge to create CM for 3D products in a cost-efficient way in a not too far future. However, the development will not be deterministic, and maybe one will observe entirely different pathways, for instance with hybrid products of PBM and CM. The main limitation to this work is the usage of the TIS framework, which is not yet quantitatively validated. A key avenue for future research lays in creating a computational model for the development of the CM industry, for example an agent-based model. This work makes contributions from both an empirical and a theoretical angle. From an empirical angle, it sheds light on the CM industry in the USA and Europe; from a theoretical angle, it provides an example of an international, comparative TIS analysis. Lastly, recommendations to policymakers and CM companies are given. Which world region will come to dominate the CM industry remains to be seen. But the assessment at hand indicates that it may yet be again the USA, which came to dominate many emerging technology-driven industries in recent years.