Print Email Facebook Twitter An inconsistency in aviation emissions between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the implications for short-lived species and their radiative forcing Title An inconsistency in aviation emissions between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the implications for short-lived species and their radiative forcing Author Thor, Robin N. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Mertens, M. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Matthes, Sigrun (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Righi, Mattia (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Hendricks, Johannes (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Brinkop, Sabine (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Graf, Phoebe (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Jöckel, Patrick (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)) Smith, Steven (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Date 2023 Abstract We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between the data products of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Emissions in the CMIP6 data occur at higher latitudes than in the CMIP5 data for all scenarios, years, and emitted species. A comparative simulation with the chemistry-climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) reveals that the difference in nitrogen oxide emission distribution leads to reduced overall ozone changes due to aviation in the CMIP6 scenarios because in those scenarios the distribution of emissions is partly shifted towards the chemically less active higher latitudes. The radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6% higher, and the decrease in methane lifetime is 5.7% larger for the year 2015 when using the CMIP5 latitudinal distribution of emissions compared to when using the CMIP6 distribution. We do not find a statistically significant difference in the radiative forcing associated with aviation aerosol emissions. In total, future studies investigating the effects of aviation emissions on ozone and climate should consider the inconsistency reported here. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7cb7ed4d-6b41-47f3-9195-8415632bbe1e DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023 ISSN 1991-959X Source Geoscientific Model Development, 16 (5), 1459-1466 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 Robin N. Thor, M. Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, V. Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Steven Smith Files PDF gmd_16_1459_2023.pdf 1.05 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:7cb7ed4d-6b41-47f3-9195-8415632bbe1e/datastream/OBJ/view