Probabilistic Quantification of Airspace Resilience

Master thesis (2020)

Authors

J.T. Janowski Aerospace Engineering

Contributors

J.M. Hoekstra Control & Operations (supervisor 1)
Joost Ellerbroek (supervisor 1)
Alexei Sharpanskykh Air Transport & Operations - Aerospace Engineering (coach)
Heiko Udluft Airbus (supervisor 2)
Giuseppe Sirigu Airbus (supervisor 2)
Faculty
Aerospace Engineering
Copyright: © 2020 Jakub Janowski
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Published Date

16-01-2020

Language

English

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Faculty

Aerospace Engineering

Abstract

The resilience of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system to disturbances is required to maintain high operation performance. Before it can be improved, the resilience of the ATM system must be quantified. The measurement of resilience requires knowledge of a system reference state. This thesis proposes a novel methodology to detect disruptions without a pre-specified reference state and to quantify airspace resilience to disturbances. The method utilises residual-based anomaly detection to model a reference state based on historical values and detect deviations from it. The method has been tested in assessing the resilience of arrival time (airspace state)to high winds (disturbance) in 9 airports worldwide for a year. The results have shown that the method is capable of detecting disruptions as well as airports experiencing high wind conditions tend to be more resilient to them.

Files

Thesis.pdf
(.pdf | 8.27 Mb)