A ship egress analysis method using spectral Markov decision processes

Conference paper (2016)

Authors

A.A. Kana Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

D.J. Singer University of Michigan

Research Group

Ship Design, Production and Operations (Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) (TU Delft)

Decision making Ship design Markov decision process Eigenvalue analysis Egress analysis

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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a64363f0-863d-4589-b418-0a9d043640c7

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Published Date

2016

Language

English

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Faculty

Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

Department

Marine and Transport Technology

Research Group

Ship Design, Production and Operations

Abstract

This paper introduces a means of performing a ship egress analysis by applying eigenvalue analysis to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) framework. This method focuses on how people egress, the decisions they make under uncertainty, and the interaction between the individuals and the layout of the vessel. The objective is to understand the implications of uncertain decision making of people on general arrangement design. One metric is introduced defined as the ratio between the largest eigenvalue and the second largest. This
decision metric is used to identify and quantify changes in decisions, as well as to help identify system attributes driving those changes in decisions. A case study is presented showing the utility of this method on a ship egress problem. Sensitivity studies are performed examining the affect of uncertainty and rewards on individuals’ decision making behavior

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