Perceptions of feasibility in design spaces are susceptible to change if new and conflicting information becomes available later. Design space reduction decisions made in set-based design can amplify vulnerability to new information if remaining design spaces and present perceptions are unable to adapt. This paper considers different ways new information can alter perceptions of feasibility for complex design problems and introduces an early, probabilistic strategy for quantifying the risk of eliminating potential design solutions based on the vulnerability of remaining design spaces to new information. Emergent designs of a set-based design process gauging this risk are evaluated against one neglecting it for an analogous design problem. Early results indicate that the probabilistic model is able to effectively delay design decisions and prevent lock-in while design space understanding is still growing.@en

This paper introduces a novel decision-making framework for planning lifecycle compliance of ballast water treatment by applying eigenvalue spectral analysis to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) framework. This method focuses on identifying the relationships of various decision making scenarios, and how those relationships change through time. The objective is to understand both these relationships and the impact of initial technology selection on lifecycle ballast water compliance. Two metrics are used. First, the optimal lifecycle strategy is presented for technology selection. Second, the set of dominant eigenvalues is used as a metric to identify the number of unique, initial condition dependent design absorbing paths the process may converge to. Sensitivity studies are performed examining the affect of policy strength on preferred compliance strategy.@en

This paper introduces a means of performing a ship egress analysis by applying eigenvalue analysis to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) framework. This method focuses on how people egress, the decisions they make under uncertainty, and the interaction between the individuals and the layout of the vessel. The objective is to understand the implications of uncertain decision making of people on general arrangement design. One metric is introduced defined as the ratio between the largest eigenvalue and the second largest. This decision metric is used to identify and quantify changes in decisions, as well as to help identify system attributes driving those changes in decisions. A case study is presented showing the utility of this method on a ship egress problem. Sensitivity studies are performed examining the affect of uncertainty and rewards on individuals’ decision making behavior@en

Naval design decision-making is difficult for two reasons. First, the naval design problem is constantly evolving due to the uncertain interaction of internal and external pressures. These pressures both affect decision-making behavior and are equally affected by those decisions. Quantifying their interaction, impacts, and long term implications has remained elusive for naval designers. The second reason for this difficulty is because there are inherent psychological reasons why many engineers struggle understanding complex decision scenarios, especially under uncertainty. Two models from the social science literature are discussed to support this. The U.S. Navy LCS program is discussed as one example of how designing in this difficult decision space landscape has led to various degrees of technical issues, cost overruns, and schedule delays. This goal of this paper is to outline the problems associated with understanding design decisions to help guide the development of next generation design and analysis tools.@en