Modelling Wind turbine diffusion

A comparative simulation study of California and Denmark for 1980-1995

Master thesis (2014)

Authors

Contributors

C. Van Daalen (mentor)
Programme
Policy Analysis (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2014 Bildik, Y.
System dynamics Wind turbine Innovation diffusion California Denmark
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Published Date

22-09-2014

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Programme

Policy Analysis

Abstract

Diffusion of renewable technologies are in the policy makers’ minds since the 1970s to deal with depleting resources and finding solutions to environmental concerns. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms behind a diffusion process becomes quite important for policy makers to manage the process effectively. A new understanding of innovation diffusion was introduced in the recent years, suggesting a dynamic understanding of the phenomenon. With this aim, this research used system dynamics modelling as a dynamic tool for modelling wind turbine diffusion. To be able to see to what extent system dynamics is able to capture the underlying mechanisms of diffusion processes, a known case of wind turbine diffusion in California and Denmark is chosen as a comparative case study. The results showed that Denmark was more successful with a higher diffusion rate due to various reasons; high oil prices, strong networks enabling knowledge share, and determination of the government. This research also showed that system dynamics is a promising approach for understanding innovation diffusion.