On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

Sun, Hao (China University of Petroleum (East China))
Wang, Haiqing (China University of Petroleum (East China))
Yang, M. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science)
Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; Universiteit Antwerpen; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

2020

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.

Accident evolution
Complex network
Pandemic
Risk analysis
Risk entropy
Window of opportunity

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:be9aebdf-f535-4b12-b3d4-acaf01cd9c81

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104322

2021-04-13

0950-4230

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety, 68

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2020 Hao Sun, Haiqing Wang, M. Yang, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers