The accuracy of consensus real estate forecasts revisited

Title

The accuracy of consensus real estate forecasts revisited

 Author

McAllister, Pat (University of Reading)
Nase, I. (TU Delft Real Estate Management) ORCID 0000-0002-5004-6088

 Date

2020

 Abstract

This study updates and expands upon the existing work on the accuracy of the IPF’s Consensus Forecasts. The paper evaluates the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance. It also assesses the accuracy of implied yield forecasts and concludes that failure in yield forecasting is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. A high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings was found. Evidence of a pessimism bias was identified. Yield forecasts are consistently found to perform worst using a range of forecast performance metrics.


 Subject

commercial real estate
consensus forecasts
Forecasting accuracy

 To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d91c3c7d-15fe-4ebd-acb0-26f3b1af233c

 DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2020.1720784

 ISSN

0959-9916

 Source

Journal of Property Research, 37 (2), 147-170

 Part of collection

Institutional Repository

 Document type

journal article

 Rights

© 2020 Pat McAllister, I. Nase
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