The impacts of e-commerce growth on the amount of kilometers driven for last-mile delivery in the Netherlands

Abstract

This research clarifies the relations between the growing e-commerce sector and the logistic sector. The last-mile transportation of goods bought via e-commerce is growing, which leads to negative impacts on the environment and mobility. A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) illustrating the relations is made and a simulation model is build quantifying these relations, for both models System Dynamics (SD) is used. The models are based on literature and data from CBS. Strategies are developed to assess two policy strategies, the use of (unmanned) pick-up points and the use of light electric freight vehicles (LEFV). The growth of e-commerce leads to logistic efficiency at the beginning, but eventually this efficiency growth will stop. Currently their is still logistic efficiency gained, this results in a less steeper growth of the negative impacts. The use of pick-up points is based on the same parameters providing the logistic efficiencies and are a strong long term solution to the growth. Furthermore, using pick-up points increases the rate of successful first time delivery, this results in less needed shipping capacity. Passenger transport is needed to pick-up the package, this effect is not incorporated. The use of LEFV’s reduces the amount of emitted pollution and the amount of road traffic movements. However more vehicles are needed and the traffic movements will only be moved to bicycle lanes. Both strategies are realistic and some logistic service providers are already implementing the strategies.