Scenarios for offshore wind development in the Netherlands: An agent-based modelling approach

Scenarios for offshore wind development in the Netherlands: An agent-based modelling approach

Mast, E.H.M.

Van Bussel, G.J.W. (promotor)
Künneke, R.W. (promotor)

Aerospace Engineering

Wind Energy

2014-02-10

The aim of this study is to develop a method to identify the barriers to and opportunities in the development of large-scale offshore wind energy in the Netherlands, taking into account the uncertainties of the future and consequences of decisions, from technological, economical, social, political and environmental perspectives. The research question is stated as: can an agent-based model be used to develop realistic implementation paths towards 6000 MW installed offshore wind power in the Dutch EEZ that show the consequences for the stakeholders? The focus topics for the model are the permit procedures, financial support, layout and timing of an offshore grid, the availability of resources, and innovation, especially of wind turbines. The results show that the agent-based model can indeed simulate different implementation paths that can be used for policy and decision support as a communication tool to show different possible futures and the limiting factors for the implementation in these futures. The methodology given in this study provides a step plan to develop such an agent-based model in analysis, design, implementation and validation phases. The main disadvantages of using agent-based modelling are: the extensive (detailed) data gathering, a long development time dependent on the implementation process and available standards, the required 'mass' and development time before simulations can be made that can be validated, and the limitations in modelling complex actor behaviour. The main advantages of using agent-based modelling are: the model can combine technological and socio-institutional aspects, the model can combine qualitative and quantitative data, the agent-based `as-is' modelling makes design easier, the model is easily extendable and a computer model is transparent.

offshore wind
agent-based
social simulation
wind energy

https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:fda3beda-4f43-4055-9e61-78610bfd14cb

9879462590557

Institutional Repository

doctoral thesis

(c) 2014 Mast, E.H.M.