Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information

Mitigating bus bunching with real-time crowding information

Drabicki, Arkadiusz (Cracow University of Technology)
Kucharski, Rafał (Jagiellonian University)
Cats, O. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)

2022

A common problem in public transport systems is bus bunching, characterized by a negative feedback loop between service headways, number of boarding passengers and dwell times. In this study, we examine whether providing real-time crowding information (RTCI) at the stop regarding the two next vehicle departures can stimulate passengers to wait for a less-crowded departure, and thus alleviate the bunching effect. To this end, we leverage on results from own stated-preference survey and develop a boarding choice model. The model accounts for the presence of RTCI and is implemented within dynamic public transport simulation framework. Application to the case-study model of a major bus corridor in Warsaw (Poland) reveals that RTCI can induce a significant probability (30–70%) of intentionally skipping an overcrowded bus and waiting for a later departure instead. This behaviour, in turn, results in significantly lower vehicle headway and load variations, without deteriorations in total waiting utility. Overall, journey experience improves by 6%, and crucially—the prevalence of denial-of-boarding and excessive on-board overcrowding is substantially reduced, by ca. 40%. Results of our study indicate that the willingness to wait induced by RTCI can be a potential demand management strategy in counteracting bunching, with benefits already attainable at limited RTCI response rates.

Bus bunching
Overcrowding
Public transport
Real-time crowding information
RTCI
Willingness to wait

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2a477dc1-2d1b-4139-a911-cc7e3966bfd4

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-022-10270-3

0049-4488

Transportation, 50 (3), 1003-1030

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2022 Arkadiusz Drabicki, Rafał Kucharski, O. Cats