An Integrated Framework for Incorporating Climate Risk into Urban Land-Use Change Modeling

An Integrated Framework for Incorporating Climate Risk into Urban Land-Use Change Modeling

Aydin, N.Y. (TU Delft System Engineering)
Krishnan, S. (TU Delft System Engineering)
Yu, H. (Student TU Delft)
Comes, M. (TU Delft System Engineering; TU Delft Transport and Logistics)

Chiara Leva, Maria (editor)
Patelli, Edoardo (editor)
Podofillini, Luca (editor)
Wilson, Simon (editor)

2022

Cities are complex socio-technical systems (STSs) under tremendous stress due to climate change. To incorporate resilience into urban plans and move towards evidence-based long-term decision-making, we must unravel complex land-use dynamics and the effect of climate uncertainties on cities. Currently, land-use dynamics are explored through Cellular Automata models to investigate the impacts of urban planning scenarios. What is, however, missing to support resilience decisions, is a systematic analysis of long-term climate uncertainties on land-use change. This study addresses this gap by analysing the effects of flood uncertainties on land-use patterns. While conventionally, urban planning decisions for climate uncertainty are based on a few scenarios, we use exploratory modeling to sample and combine uncertain climate variables to scenarios and understand the implications of the climate scenarios on land use via computational experiments. Specifically, we integrate flood probability maps into land-use maps to assess land suitability. Agglomerative clustering allows us to analyze the resulting land-use maps based on their similarity. Finally, we select representative maps from each cluster and compare them with the baseline map. We apply our integrated modeling approach in the Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam (MRA). Our results show spatially explicit alternatives for high-density residential development that is climate-resilient. The proposed framework can be applied to other cities to investigate the long-term impacts of climate uncertainties and adopt resilience-informed decision-making.

Simulation modeling
Decision support
Uncertainty
Urban resilience
Land-use modeling
Cellular automata
Exploratory modeling

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7264ce87-f27c-4c41-ae34-098925974afa

ESREL

13: 978-981-18-5183-4

Proceedings of the 32ND EUROPEAN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY CONFERENCE (ESREL 2022)

32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022), 2022-08-28 → 2022-09-01, Dublin, Ireland

Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2022 N.Y. Aydin, S. Krishnan, H. Yu, M. Comes