A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

van Belzen, Jim (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)
Fivash, Gregory S. (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)
Hu, Zhan (Sun Yat-sen University; Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering)
Bouma, T.J. (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Universiteit Utrecht)
Herman, P.M.J. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics; Deltares)

2022

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

critical transitions
establishment
noise-induced transition
population and community dynamics
stable state
temporal variability

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8451d89b-89d8-4d5d-9f8a-9ecc54797f91

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0041

1742-5689

Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 19 (190)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2022 Jim van Belzen, Gregory S. Fivash, Zhan Hu, T.J. Bouma, P.M.J. Herman