Print Email Facebook Twitter Dynamic Prediction of Delays in Software Projects using Delay Patterns and Bayesian Modeling Title Dynamic Prediction of Delays in Software Projects using Delay Patterns and Bayesian Modeling Author Kula, E. (TU Delft Software Engineering) Greuter, Eric van Deursen, A. (TU Delft Software Engineering) Gousios, G. (TU Delft Software Technology) Contributor Chandra, Satish (editor) Blincoe, Kelly (editor) Tonella, Paolo (editor) Department Software Technology Date 2023 Abstract Modern agile software projects are subject to constant change, making it essential to re-asses overall delay risk throughout the project life cycle. Existing effort estimation models are static and not able to incorporate changes occurring during project execution. In this paper, we propose a dynamic model for continuously predicting overall delay using delay patterns and Bayesian modeling. The model incorporates the context of the project phase and learns from changes in team performance over time. We apply the approach to real-world data from 4,040 epics and 270 teams at ING. An empirical evaluation of our approach and comparison to the state-of-the-art demonstrate significant improvements in predictive accuracy. The dynamic model consistently outperforms static approaches and the state-of-the-art, even during early project phases. Subject agile methodsdelay predictiondelay patternsbayesian modeling To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a2343b41-4cd9-4dd3-b921-ea2c03fe2985 DOI https://doi.org/10.1145/3611643.3616328 Publisher ACM DL, New York ISBN 979-8-4007-0327-0 Source ESEC/FSE 2023 - Proceedings of the 31st ACM Joint Meeting European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering: Proceedings of the 2023 31st ACM Joint European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering Event 31st ACM Joint European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering, 2023-12-03 → 2023-12-09, San Francisco, , United States Series ESEC/FSE 2023 - Proceedings of the 31st ACM Joint Meeting European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights © 2023 E. Kula, Eric Greuter, A. van Deursen, G. Gousios Files PDF 3611643.3616328.pdf 758.87 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:a2343b41-4cd9-4dd3-b921-ea2c03fe2985/datastream/OBJ/view