Exploratory Scenario Analysis: The Future of Urban Logistics in 2040

Abstract

Urban logistics is characterized by a high degree of freight flow fragmentation, the employment of various delivery methods, and the use of various vehicle capacities. Urban logistics is important for inhabitants' quality of life both in a negative and positive sense and plays a large economic role with significant advantages for various stakeholders along complex, dynamic supply chains. These trends influence the direction of how the city and the supply chain will develop over the coming decades.
Getting a clearer vision of city logistics by exploring (economic, societal, and environmental) trends and different new forms of transportation with exploratory scenarios benefits a wide range of stakeholders. With this vision, municipalities can adapt their urban logistics policy strategy and logistical companies & developers their investments in supply chains and infrastructure. 
Rather than sharing their experiences, cities mimic each other's freight legislation. Because the stakes of the various players in the issue are not directly recognized, obligations for urban freight are passed to other stakeholders, and expectations on projects are unclear. and they do not feel responsible for the solution. Changes in logistic stakeholders' conduct are hindered by their passive and awaiting attitudes toward one another. Technological and economic developments have had an impact on urban freight leading to a growing scale of consumption and production. Four distinct scenarios for exploring the future of urban logistics were developed. The four scenarios give an overview of the future of urban logistics and the organization of the inner city supply chain in 2040. The developed vision 2040 for urban logistics has shown significant changes regarding the use of technologies and infrastructure, the design of services and delivery concepts, market organization and cooperation, planning and regulation and finally to a certain extent also behavior. All in all, eventually in 2040, we will not be worse off in terms of CO2 emissions than in the current scenario as climate change will put pressure on increasing emission reduction regulation, even in scenarios 1 & 3 where market forces dominate. Scenario 2 might be the best future outcome for increasing the city's liveability but less good for logistical businesses due to heavy regulation in the urban logistics system. Scenario 4 might be the worst for businesses due to increased cost and economic headwinds and city inhabitants due to reduced living conditions caused by extreme weather. This scenario could be averted if there would be a drastic reduction in emissions to stop climate change. The development of innovative urban distribution methods and driving forces can have a substantial impact on the future urban logistics system. These scenarios, implications & recommendations should assist businesses, policymakers and investors in imagining future developments, exploring relevant uncertainties, and studying the implications for their merit.