Analysing residential heating technology trade-offs to influence decision making of municipalities using a GIS-model

Abstract

The heating transition goals of the Netherlands are ambitious. To reach the goal of an 80% reduction of CO2 emission by 2050, the total residential heat consumption would need to be drastically cut down. The Dutch government is leaning towards implementing large-scale heating networks and reusing waste heat from non-renewable industry. However, doubts exist whether or not that is the most viable solution. Other research lacks an overlapping approach to the modelling of a complex problem like the heating transition. The aim of this paper is to make a GIS-based framework to develop scenarios for the heating transition in cities and evaluate the implementation of different combinations of technologies to reach the Dutch climate goals. This analysis focusses on residential buildings because there is an ongoing discussion who is going to pay for the investment necessary to achieve the heating transition for this type of building. The case study of this paper focusses on the Merenwijk in the city of Leiden in the Netherlands

The technologies covered in this paper are heat pumps, low temperature heating networks and high temperature heating networks. These technologies are evaluated on their technical, financial and environmental aspects to determine their impact. Next to these impacts the trade-offs of implementing these technologies are evaluated and which impact these could have on the stakeholders involved. Three scenarios were made to cover a few combinations of these technologies: 1) a scenario based on the warmtevisie from Leiden utilizing heat pumps and low temperature heating networks; 2) a scenario utilizing only heat pumps; and 3) a scenario implementing low and high temperature heating networks for the whole neighbourhood. 
All technologies have specific characteristics which should be considered before implementing on a large scale. Financial assistance from the municipality or the government is needed for the home owners in order to achieve the heating transition within 32 years. The energy sources used by the heating technologies will be crucial for reaching the climate goals. At some point the Dutch government has to choose between a quick wins solution by reusing waste heat from the harbour of Rotterdam, or to implement a long term sustainable energy transition with heat pumps and low temperature heating networks. This paper provides an overview of the three mentioned heating technologies to be implemented during the heating transition as an alternative to natural gas. Moreover, it will hopefully invoke some debate about the Dutch government’s heating transition agenda.