Scenario Analysis for Resilient Urban Green Infrastructure

With the advancement of urbanization, the stress on the green infrastructure around the urban agglomeration has intensified, which causes severe ecological problems. The uncertainty of urban growth makes it difficult to achieve effective protection only by setting protection red lines and other rigid measures. It is of practical significance to...

Simulating the interactions between the water and the socio-economic system in a stressed endorheic basin

The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used...

A sensitivity analysis of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy...

An exploration of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with BasGoed

This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. The strategic freight transport model Basgoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport...

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of cryptosporidium to surface waters: A case study for Bangladesh and India

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total...

Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting

This thesis addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and indicates that a different perspective on economic growth and...

Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting: Extended summary report

This report, that provides an extended summary of a similar named thesis, addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and...

An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and some typical combinations, based on available...

Shipping and shipbuilding scenario evaluations through integration of maritime and macroeconomic models

This research focusses on the use of consistent scenarios to help ship owners, banks and other parties with an interest the maritime business get a better grip on the future. Three levels of detail can be distinguished for the maritime industry. The macroeconomic level is the highest and focusses on the behaviour of countries and the trade...