Describing financial crisis propagation through epidemic modelling on multiplex networks

This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the spread of financial crises in complex networks, combining financial data, Extreme Value Theory and an epidemiological transmission model. We accommodate two key aspects of contagion modelling: fundamentals-based contagion, where the transmission is due to direct financial linkages, and...

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its...

The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses

There is evidence that the ozone layer has begun to recover owing to the ban on the production of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODS) accomplished by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments (MPA). However, recent studies, while reporting an increase in tropospheric ozone from the anthropogenic NOx and CH4 and...

The response of mesospheric H₂O and CO to solar irradiance variability in models and observations

Water vapor (H₂O) is the source of reactive hydrogen radicals in the middle atmosphere, whereas carbon monoxide (CO), being formed by CO₂photolysis, is suitable as a dynamical tracer. In the mesosphere, both H₂O and CO are sensitive to solar irradiance (SI) variability because of their destruction/production...

A next step in disruption management: combining operations research and complexity science

Railway systems occasionally get into a state of being out-of-control, meaning that barely any train is running, even though the required resources (infrastructure, rolling stock and crew) are available. Because of the large number of affected resources and the absence of detailed, timely and accurate information, currently existing...

Atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOLv4.0: Description and evaluation

This paper features the new atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model, SOlar Climate Ozone Links (SOCOL) v4.0, and its validation. The new model was built by interactively coupling the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) (T63, L47) with the chemistry (99 species) and size-resolving (40 bins) sulfate aerosol...

Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models

Recent observations show a significant decrease in lower-stratospheric (LS) ozone concentrations in tropical and mid-latitude regions since 1998. By analysing 31 chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations performed for the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI; Morgenstern et al., 2017), we find a large spread in the 1998 2018 trend...

Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble

As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), several climate modeling centers performed a coordinated prestudy experiment with interactive stratospheric aerosol models simulating the volcanic aerosol cloud from an eruption resembling the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption (VolMIP-Tambora ISA...

Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998

The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban on long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s, and ozone above 32 km is now clearly recovering. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery,...

A Next Step in Disruption Management: Combining Operations Research and Complexity Science

Railway systems occasionally get into a state of out-of-control, meaning that there is barely any train is running, even though the required resources (infrastructure, rolling stock and crew) are available. These situations can either be caused by large disruptions or unexpected propagation and accumulation of delays. Because of the large number...

Long-range correlations of microseism-band pressure fluctuations in the ocean

We investigate the spatial coherence of underwater ambient noise using a yearlong time-series measured off Ascension Island. Qualitative agreement with observed cross-correlations is achieved using a simple range-dependent model, constrained by earlier, active tomographic studies in the area. In particular, the model correctly predicts the...

SizeChina: A 3D Anthropometric Survey of the Chinese Head

Problem The design of consumer products that are worn on the head relies on the availability of accurate anthropometric information describing the shape and size of the human head and face. Historical anthropometric studies with univariate data have documented the existence of shape differences between Asian and Western head shapes, but the...

User Experience of Office Chairs and Anthropometrics of Female Chinese and Hong Kong Chinese Office and Factory Workers

In Hong Kong it was noticed that female office and factory workers use chairs that are oversized and can't support their sitting posture in a comfortable way. In order to set up general recommendations to design a more appropriate office chair, a research of the user experience of office chairs was conducted by means of interviews,...

Acoustic excitation of tollmien-schliechting waves in a laminar boundary layer

An electrolytic tank developed for obtaining velocity and pressure distributions about hydrodynamic forms