Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to Characterize Induced Earthquakes: Application to a M_L 3.4 Event in the Groningen Gas Field and the Role of Prior

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is known to be highly efficient when sampling high-dimensional model spaces due to Hamilton's equations guiding the sampling process. For weakly non-linear problems, linearizing the forward problem enhances this efficiency. This study integrates this linearization with geological prior knowledge for...

Assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure

Dikes are an effective flood risk reduction measure in deltaic areas. Present risk analyses consist often of decoupled calculations of probabilities of dike failure and calculation of consequences of flooding given dike failure. However, the flood defense design determines not only the probability of failure, but influences the consequences...

Probabilistic life cycle cash flow forecasting with price uncertainty following a geometric Brownian motion

In the Netherlands, probabilistic life cycle cash flow forecasting for infrastructures has gained attention in the past decennium. Frequencies, volume and unit prices of life cycle activities are treated as uncertainty variables for which an expert-based triangular distribution is assumed. The current research observes the absence of time...

Probabilistic traffic load model for short-span city bridges

In the coming years numerous existing traffic bridges in cities are subject to re-evaluation. In this paper a new probabilistic traffic load model for short-span bridges is proposed. As an example, site-specific weigh-in-motion data from Rotterdam, the Netherlands, is included in the model. The method proposed in this paper allows for a very...

Approaches towards a Probabilistic Assessment of Geotechnical Parameter Distributions Relying on Geophysical Imaging

Geophysical imaging techniques, such as seismic crosshole tomographic methods, provide spatially continuous information about physical parameter variations in the ground. This physical parameter information, e.g., distribution of seismic velocities, is frequently used to estimate spatial distributions of geotechnical target parameters that could...

Probabilistic Slope Stability Analyses Using Limit Equilibrium and Finite Element Methods

This paper compares the results of different probabilistic approaches and emphasizes the necessity of probabilistic analyses in slope stability studies. To do that, Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) and Finite Element Method (FEM) are utilized and their outputs are compared in terms of probability of failure (PF), reliability index (RI), factor of...

Evaluation of design hydrograph methods and probabilistic methods for estimating design water levels on the river Meuse

Design water levels are needed for the design of flood defences along the Dutch river Meuse. Current practise is that these water levels are determined by hydrodynamic simulation of a standard design hydrograph at the upstream gauging station Borgharen. The peak discharge of this synthetic hydrograph is based on a frequency analysis of the 100...

Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences: Technical report

Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an extensive water storage and drainage system to...

On the Generic Utilization of Probabilistic Methods for Quantification of Uncertainty in Process-based Morhpodynamic Model Applications

A variety of uncertainty sources are inherent in process-based morphodynamic modelling applications. There is an increasing demand for the quantification of these uncertainties. This contribution introduces a probabilistic-morphodynamic (PM) modelling framework that enables this quantification. The PM modelling framework provides a systematic...

The role of bathymetry, wave obliquity and coastal curvature in dune erosion prediction

This study aims at reducing uncertainty in dune erosion predictions, in particular at complex dune coasts, in order to improve the assessment method for dune safety against flooding. To that end, state-of-the-art process-based dune erosion models are employed to further investigate issues insufficiently covered by the current Dutch safety...

Calibration of partial factors in the safety assessment of existing concrete slab bridges for shear failure

The assessment of the structural safety of existing bridges and viaducts becomes increasingly important in many countries due to the age of the structures and an increase in traffic loads. Many structures need to be reassessed in order to find out whether the safety requirements are met. Most existing standards, however, are developed for the...

System Reliability Assessment of Offshore Pipelines

The title of this thesis, System Reliability Assessment of Offshore Pipelines, portrays the application of probabilistic methods in assessing the reliability of these structures. The main intention of this thesis is to identify, apply and judge the suitability of the probabilistic methods in evaluating the system reliability of offshore...

Reliability methods for finite element models

Probabilistic techniques in engineering problems are needed because they provide a deeper understanding of failure mechanisms and occurrence probabilities than deterministic techniques. In addition, they draw our attention to the consequences of failure at an early stage in the design process. However, to achieve these advantages, a well-defined...

Reliability evaluation of a structure at sea

In general a safety factor or a conventional partial coefficient is used for the design of structures at sea. These methods are classified as Level I (deterministic) methods. However, such approaches do not allow the determination of the reliability (or the failure probability) of the design, and consequently it is neither possible to optimize,...

Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges

This paper introduces the Water Resources Research special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology. Over the past years, hydrological literature has seen a large increase in the number of papers dealing with uncertainty. In this article, we present an overview of the different sources of uncertainty and the...