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Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...
journal article 2013
document
Markensteijn, T.L. (author)
Organizations are in ever changing environments which results in the need for constant adaptation of business processes and structures. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a commonly used application of Business Process Simulation to support decision makers in complex processes. However, in case deep uncertainty is present in a target business...
journal article 2013
document
Walker, W.E. (author)
Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out...
journal article 2015
document
Haasnoot, M. (author), Schellekens, J. (author), Beersma, J.J. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author), Kwadijk, J.C.J. (author)
Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate...
journal article 2015
document
Tegeltija, Miroslava (author), Oehmen, Josef (author), Kozin, Igor (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Uncertainty assessment and management, as well as the associated decision making are increasingly important in a variety of scientific fields. While uncertainty analysis has a long tradition, meeting sustainable development goals through long-term Life Cycle Engineering (LCE) decision making demands addressing Deep Uncertainty (DU). DU...
journal article 2018
document
McPhail, C. (author), Maier, H. R. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Giuliani, M (author), Castelletti, A (author), Westra, S. (author)
Robustness is being used increasingly for decision analysis in relation to deep uncertainty and many metrics have been proposed for its quantification. Recent studies have shown that the application of different robustness metrics can result in different rankings of decision alternatives, but there has been little discussion of what potential...
journal article 2018
document
Kok, M. (author), van de Riet, O. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)
Here we examine whether a study conducted 25 years ago (1992) would have had different conclusions if concepts and analytical methods developed since then had been used. The 1992 problem was to identify a strategy for reducing flood risk in the Netherlands by, for example, strengthening the river dikes against the risk of flooding. Since then,...
journal article 2019
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