Network-based prediction of COVID-19 epidemic spreading in Italy

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for...

Epidemic outbreaks in two-scale community networks

We consider a model for the diffusion of epidemics in a population that is partitioned into local communities. In particular, assuming a mean-field approximation, we analyze a continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that has appeared recently in the literature. The probability by which an individual infects individuals in...