Social contagion as a means to transitions

Faced with increased pressure due to the earthquakes in Groningen and global warming, the Netherlands government has decided to discontinue the production of and completely transition away from natural gas by 2050. This requires the transformation of the 95% of houses that are currently heated using natural gas into ones that are heated using...

Framework for updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

The dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term visions of the future; scenarios. Outdated scenarios will result in future pathways that are no longer achievable and therefore reduces their relevance and usefulness for making decisions. As some uncertainty is resolved over time, while other uncertainties...