Uncertainty Analysis on Multi-model Ecologies: A Study on Methods to Analyse the Impact of Uncertainties in Multi-model Ecologies and their Application to the Windmaster Model

Our contemporary society consists of increasingly complex systems-of-systems in which technical and social subsystems influence each other. Multi-models reflect this complexity and are useful to analyse these complex socio-technical systems. They consist of connected simulation models which may each have their focus on a subsystem or modelling...

Investigating Uncertainty in Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Small Island Developing States: A Case Study in São Tomé and Príncipe

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are increasingly under threat of coastal flooding, which challenges the safety of their societies and vulnerable economies. The emergency of this issue, exacerbated by climate change, has alarmed international organisations and national governments that have been demanding for robust risk assessments to...

Model-Based Market Organisation of Emerging Energy Networks: The impacts of role demarcation policy on the development of the EV charging infrastructure market

Market organisation on energy networks is increasingly complex due to frequent emergence of new markets within and related to energy infrastructure. This research is conducted in cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, and analyses the impacts of role demarcation policies on the development of the electric...

Uncertainty analysis in determining the position of a drill bit: Het bepalen van de onzekerheden bij het bepalen van de positie van een boorkop

In well-bore engineering, oil-well boreholes are made using specialized drilling rigs. The position of the drill bit needs to be indirectly determined through accelero- and magnetometer measurements. To this end, the measurement data is first converted into a survey of direction vectors by applying a series of coordinate transformations. Then, a...

How good is good enough in DP calculations?: A case study into uncertainties involved in the DP capability prediction process

Currently there are three methods of calculating the Dynamic Positioning capability of a vessel namely: static calculations, real-time time domain simulations and fast-time time domain simulations, although the outcome of the last two should be identical. In each of these methods a set of input variables is required to perform the calculations....

Growing uncertainty: Finding suitable methods of uncertainty propagation for agricultural Life Cycle Assessment in developing countries

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been the primary tool for the quantification and<br/>comparison of the environmental impact of product systems. Despite ongoing<br/>development of the LCA methodology, uncertainties are often not adequately<br/>addressed in LCA research. The large variety of approaches to treat uncertainties and the lack of...

Quantification of acquisition uncertainties in seismic wavefield deghosting

Marine seismic acquisition is troubled with several factors of noise that can deteriorate seismic data. Marine seismic data are recorded with towed streamers that acquire the desired upgoing wavefields containing information of the geology beneath. The upgoing wavefield will travel past the streamer/hydrophone to be reflected at the sea surface...

Uncertainty and propagation analysis on DIMITRI

DIMITRI is a tool that has been developed for monitoring the radiometric performance of optical instruments onboard Earth observation satellites. It includes a reflectance model through which a calibration coefficient is computed which is used for performance monitoring. In this thesis, the uncertainty that is associated with this coefficient is...

Development of Transfer Standards for SSL Measurement

Solid-state lighting (SSL) is the most energy-efficient lighting technology in the present lighting market. With high efficiency, good quality and nice lighting appearance, SSL products are highly expected to replace low efficient and environmental unfriendly incandescent light bulbs in the near future. An international organization has been...

Approach to the use of uncertainty for management purposes - study Case: Quantification of the uncertainty in the turbidity for the ecosystem of the Wadden Sea

Around the world, areas with unique ecosystems are prone to harmful factors deteriorating their environment. Management of these areas need knowledge on the ecological status of these areas, to make decisions for future problems. They need easily accessible information on indicators describing the conditions of these areas. Obtaining this...

Data poor environments: Uncertainty propagation in hydrodynamic modelling

The objective of this study is to propose a method that is able to deal with data poor environments within coastal studies. Numerical models are useful tools to get insight in the coastal processes of the system being modelled. Inaccurate or poor input data leads to inaccurate or even incorrect model results. By stochastic modelling insight is...

Exploratory modeling: A promising method for flood risk management?

This thesis compares exploratory modeling and analysis (EMA) to other methods for analyzing uncertainty. A set of criteria to compare the performance of methods is designed. Based on two case studies the perfromance of EMA on these criteria is assessed. Based on a workshop with experts the advantages of EMA over other methods for analyzing...