Stress-testing banks under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess bank performance under deep uncertainty and identify vulnerabilities to different types of risks. Banks are not the safe houses of old. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are permanently at risk due to internal and external stresses and...

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty: An ESDMA Approach

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk...

Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks: Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the System Dynamics-based variant using the societal...

Dutch social housing sector reforms: Exploring the effects on low income households

Social rental housing ought to function as safety net for the lower income groups in the housing system. However, the Dutch housing system has a relatively large social housing stock in relation to other housing systems in Europe – larger than would be required for a safety net for lower income groups. Hence, households which are financially...

The Leadership Game: Experiencing Dynamic Complexity under Deep Uncertainty

In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...

Energy Transitions towards Sustainability I: A Staged Exploration of Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....

Exploring Demographic Shifts: Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System...

Essential Skills for System Dynamics Practitioners: A Delft University of Technology Perspective

There is little consensus on the skills set required of a system dynamics practitioner. In this paper we use the teaching approach and learning goals of the system dynamics courses at the Delft University of Technology as a starting point to explore the development of system dynamics modeling skills. System dynamics is embedded in the curriculum...

Saving a Bank? Cracking the Case of the Fortis Bank?

This paper presents a simple experimental System Dynamics model of the underlying value and stock market value of a bank to analyze a loss of trust the a bank. The System Dynamics model was developed on 28 September 2008 –the day the governments of the Benelux countries met in a great hurry to rescue the Fortis bank– in order to gain a better...

Hop, Step, Step and Jump: Towards Real-World Complexity @ Delft University of Technology

This paper deals with System Dynamics education at Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. It focuses more specifically on the quadruple jump approach towards dealing with real-world dynamic complexity. The paper starts with an overview of the System Dynamics courses, situated within the broader curriculum. Then recent innovations in...

Making System Dynamics Cool? Using Hot Testing & Teaching Cases

This paper deals with the use of ‘hot’ real-world cases for both testing and teaching purposes such as in the Introductory System Dynamics course at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The paper starts with a brief overview of the System Dynamics curriculum. Then the problem-oriented teaching and testing approach is explained,...

Cholera in Zimbabwe

By the end of December 2008, alarming reports and articles concerning the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe received plenty of international media coverage. By that time nearly 30000 cases of cholera infections and 1600 cholera deaths had been reported. In the first week of January 2009, a System Dynamics simulation model related to this cholera...

Evolution of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa

This paper presents a system dynamics model to study the spread of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. The HIV/AIDS model includes important feedback mechanisms of the spread of HIV/AIDS, and partly explains the dynamics of the epidemic in a representative Southern African country. The HIV/AIDS model indicates that prevention to reduce risk behavior is...

'Food or Energy?' Is that the question?

Dealing with Multiple Perspectives: Uing (Cultural) Profiles in Systems Dynamics