Lost in deflation: Why Italy’s woes are a warning to the whole Eurozone

Using macroeconomic data for 1960-2018, this paper analyzes the origins of the crisis of the ‘post-Maastricht Treaty order of Italian capitalism’. After 1992, Italy did more than most other Eurozone members to satisfy EMU conditions in terms of self-imposed fiscal consolidation, structural reform and real wage restraint — and the country was...

Labor Laws and Manufacturing Performance in India: How Priors Trump Evidence and Progress Gets Stalled

Strong labor protections for ordinary workers are often portrayed as a `luxury developing countries cannot afford`. No study has been more influential in propagating this perversity trope in the context of the Indian economy than the QJE article of Besley and Burgess (2004). Their article provides econometric evidence that pro-worker regulation...

The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation and the Vanishing Middle-Class

The U.S. economy is widely diagnosed with two ‘diseases’: a secular stagnation of potential U.S. growth, and rising income and job polarization. The two diseases have a common root in the demand shortfall, originating from the ‘unbalanced’ growth between technologically ‘dynamic’ and ‘stagnant’ sectors. To understand how the short-run demand...