Integral Risk Management for DBFM Tenders and Contracts in the Netherlands

This paper presents an overview of an integral risk management approach with emphasis on the relationships with the costing and scheduling processes. Forms of uncertainty related to project planning are classified and implemented in the probabilistic costing and scheduling processes. Furthermore, the importance of the integral probabilistic...

Soil Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis in Comparison with Limit State Design Method According to Eurocode 7

The paper contrasts results obtained by the partially factored limit state design method and a more advanced Random Finite Difference Method (RFDM) in a benchmark problem of slope stability analysis with random undrained shear strength parameter. Local Average Subdivision method was used to simulate a non-Gaussian random variable. The key...

Bearing Capacity of Spatially Random Rock Masses Obeying Hoek-Brown Failure Criterion

In this paper, a probabilistic analysis is presented to compute the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a spatially varying rock mass. The rock is assumed to follow the generalized Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The uniaxial compressive strength of the intact rock (σc) was considered as a random field and the Geological...

Integral Risk Management for DBFM Tenders and Contracts in the Netherlands

This paper presents an overview of an integral risk management approach with emphasis on the relationships with the costing and scheduling processes. Forms of uncertainty related to project planning are classified and implemented in the probabilistic costing and scheduling processes. Furthermore, the importance of the integral probabilistic...

Reconnaissance Level Studies on a Storm Surge Barrier for Flood Risk Reduction in the Houston-Galveston Bay

The Houston - Galveston area is at significant risk from hurricane induced storm surges. This paper summarizes ongoing studies on flood risk reduction for the region. Firstly, based on a simplified probabilistic hurricane surge model , the return periods of surges within the bay have been estimated. This model framework can be used to assess the...

Optimal inspection planning with time-dependent reliability analysis, application to rubble-mound breakwaters

In order to avoid failure in its lifetime, a breakwater system has to be inspected and, if necessary, has to be repaired. In this paper, a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning is formulated. Rational maintenance decision-making approaches are discussed. The proposed maintenance strategy combines time-dependent and...

Optimal inspection strategy for rubble-mound breakwaters with time-dependent reliability analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning and its application to rubble mound breakwaters. In order to fulfil designated functions, a breakwater has to be inspected during its lifetime and has to be repaired if necessary. Actions of inspecting and repairing form a maintenance strategy. In the paper...

Probabilistic analysis of soil: Diaphragm wall friction used for value engineering of deep excavation, north/south metro Amsterdam

The excavation of deep building pits often requires a check against failure by uplift of low permeability ground layers below excavation level. Whenever the weight of these soil layers is less than the pore-water pressure underneath, measures to resist buoyancy are to be considered. The measures most commonly adopted include: decreasing the...

Uncertainties in the design of bed protections near quay walls

Design formulas for bed protections in the port of Rotterdam were investigated. Using depthsoundings, the actual level of stability of a quay wall can be compared with the design formulas. The loads on a bottom protection differ, because of diversity in shipping and tidal motion. Therefore a better comparison can be made by resembling the...

Computation of a coastal protection, using classical method, the PIANC-method or a full probabilistic approach ?

In a classical design approach to breakwaters a design wave height is determined, and filled in into a design formula. Some undefined safety is added. In the method using partial safety coefficients (as developed by PIANC [1992] and recently also adopted by the Coastal Engineering Manual of the US Army Corps of Engineers [CEM [2003]) the degree...

Criteria for the selection of breakwater types

In history PIANC has paid quite some attentions to breakwaters, in ancient years results of practical experience have been published in the country presentations at the Conferences, but later some of these papers started to have a more scientific basis. One of the first papers giving a good background on the processes of stability of breakwaters...

Probability and port engineering

One of the major problems in the design of coastal structures is that the design has to be based on very uncertain input data. This implies that the degree of uncertainty is an important value for the designer. In traditional design the uncertainty is not really quantified, but an overall “safety factor” is included. The problem of this approach...

Proverbs: Probabilistic design tools for vertical breakwaters

Final report and appendices of the European project Proverbs on tools for the design of vertical breakwaters (caisson type breakwaters) and similar hydraulic structures in the coastal zone. It includes the loads (waves) as well as the strength of the structure (geotechnial aspects, structural aspects)

Dicea Risk analysis in the design of coastal structures

Basic lecture on risk analysis for the design of coastal structures.

Design plan Oosterschelde Storm-surge barrier: Overall design and design philosophy

The 10 year struggle of the Rijkswaterstaat (State Department of Public Works) and contractors with the task to build a permeable sea defence structure in the Oosterschelde, has been registered in sixteen successive project reports which contain thousands of documents. These documents are sometimes complete part-project papers and sometimes not...

Probabilistisch ontwerpen van waterkeringen

De kruinhoogte van de dijk wordt verkregen door bij de genoemde maatgevende waterstand, een waakhoogte (inclusief de golfoploop) op te tellen. De kruinhoogte van de dijk is echter slechts een van de kenmerkende grootheden van een dijkprofiel. De overige grootheden worden bepaald op grond van eisen met betrekking tot de stabiliteit, de aanleg,...

Enkele gedachten aangaande een aanvaardbaar risiconiveau in Nederland

Het hierna volgende rapport is het resultaat van een studie, uitgevoerd door werkgroep 10 "Probabilistische methode" van de Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen. Het beoogt een stap te zijn op een lange weg naar een zo goed mogelijke objectieve bepaling van normen voor risiconiveaus. Het rapport gaat in op de maatschappelijke...

Probabilistische methoden bij het duinontwerp: Achtergronden van de TAW-Leidraad 'Duinafslag'

Vooral gestimuleerd door het ontwerp van de Oosterschelde stormvloedkering krijgt de zogenaamde probabilistische ontwerpfilosofie in toenemende mate aandacht in de waterbouwkundige ontwerppraktijk. (Bij een probabilistisch ontwerp wordt op basis van risico-analyses en waarschijnlijkheidsberekeningen de veiligheid van het ontwerp beoordeeld.)...