Bayesian calibration of car-following models

Recent research has revealed that there exist large inter-driver differences in car-following behavior such that different car-following models may apply to different drivers. This study applies Bayesian techniques to the calibration of car-following models, where prior distributions on each model parameter are converted to posterior...

Stochastic incident duration: Impact on delay

The duration of incidents is a stochastic variable with a variation spread. This chapter analyzes the consequences of this stochastic nature of the duration in terms of delay. It uses shockwave theory to describe traffic states. As opposed to a point queue model, the head and the tail of the queue are separately modeled and in this way the...

Stochastic Incident Duration: Impact on Delay (poster)

The delay caused by an incident depends on many variables. This paper introduces an analytical expression for the delay, describing the location and length of the queue by shockwave theory. As long as the congestion remains on the same link, delay is proportional to the square of the duration, even in case the outflow is reduced by a junction...

Link-level vulnerability indicators for real-world networks (poster)

Literature proposes link-based indicators as predictors of the delay caused by a blockade on a particular link. This paper cross-compares these indicators and compares them with the result of a full simulation. The indicators predict different links to be vulnerable. Furthermore, the indicators do not provide a good indication of the delay of a...

Link-level vulnerability indicators for real-world networks

It is computationally expensive to find out where vulnerable parts in a network are. In literature a variety of methods were introduced that use relatively simple selection criteria (measured in real-life or calculated in a traffic simulator) to pre-determine the seriousness of the delays caused by the blocking of that link and thereafter...

Microscopic Traffic Behaviour near Incidents

Much of the delays on road networks are caused by incidents. This is partially caused by blockage or closure of lanes, but also by the change of driving behaviour in the remaining lanes. This contribution analyses traffic flow conditions near an incident both microscopically and macroscopically. A theory is proposed to describe drivers’...

Delay of Incidents Consequences of Stochastic Incident Duration

The delay caused by an incident depends on many variables. This paper introduces an analytical expression for the delay, describing the location and length of the queue by shockwave theory. As long as the congestion remains on the same link, delay is proportional to the square of the duration, even in case the outflow is reduced by a junction...

Delay of Incidents Consequences of Stochastic Incident Duration (poster)

The delay caused by an incident depends on many variables. This paper introduces an analytical expression for the delay, describing the location and length of the queue by shockwave theory. As long as the congestion remains on the same link, delay is proportional to the square of the duration, even in case the outflow is reduced by a junction...