“Stay nearby or get checked”: A Covid-19 control strategy

This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated...

Network-based prediction of COVID-19 epidemic spreading in Italy

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for...

Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei

At the moment of writing, the future evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the COVID-19 epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their...