Contributing to health system resilience during pandemics via purchasing and supply strategies: an exploratory system dynamics approach

Background: Health systems worldwide struggled to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic due to global supply chain disruptions. Our study’s aim was to create a proof-of-concept model that would simulate the effects of supply strategies under various scenarios, to ultimately help...

Reassessing tin circularity and criticality

Tin is an important metal for society with a high risk of supply disruptions. It is, therefore, classified as a critical material in many parts of the world. An exception is the European Union, for which tin was classified as a non-critical material in 2023. However, there are many discrepancies in the literature regarding the definitions and...

Impact of Leader-Follower Behavior on Evacuation Performance: An Exploratory Modeling Approach

Different leader-follower behaviors may be observed in models, such as group gathering, backtracking, and changing between groups. However, a comparison of these behaviors resulting in possible substantially different estimates of optimal evacuation procedures is lacking. Hence, we developed an agent-based model in combination with exploratory...

Spatial impact of automated driving in urban areas

Urban form develops in close feedback with different modes of transportation. The introduction and adoption of automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to have an impact on the development of cities as well, as the use of AVs may, for example, lead to more efficient road use and less need for parking spaces. In order to study those impacts, we...

Multivariate simulation modelling for adaptive long-term infrastructure planning

Infrastructure asset managers are challenged by rapid changes around the world such as urbanisation and climate change. They have to deal with multiple complex and dynamic infrastructure systems that can influence each other and that can be influenced by various uncertain factors. Traditional planning methods are not well suited to complex and...

Modelling Uncertainty: Developing and Using Simulation Models for Exploring the Consequences of Deep Uncertainty in Complex Problems

Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...

The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies: How hydrocarbon exporting rentier states and developing nations can prepare for a more sustainable future

The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use...

Simulating endogenous dynamics of intervention-capacity deployment: Ebola outbreak in Liberia

During the first months, the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus (EBOV) in West Africa was characterised by inadequate intervention capacities. In this paper, we investigate (1) the influence of limited but dynamic intervention capacities and their effect on the effective reproduction number, and (2) the effects of proactive versus reactive...

The Geopolitical Impact of Shale Gas: The Modelling Approach

The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...

Comparing behavioral dynamics across models: The case of copper

In many public policy issues diverging understandings of the system can be encountered. These diverging understandings can reside in the mental models of the different actors involved, or even be codified into structurally different models of the system. For an analyst it can be of great use to get insight into how and under what conditions the...

Exploring the effects of shale gas development on natural gas markets: A multi-method approach

Now that conventional gas resources are rapidly declining in many industrialised regions, national governments are considering the exploration and production of unconventional resources, with shale gas in particular. Large-scale development of these resources could significantly lower import dependency of the gas supply of many countries. The...

Modelling the Skinner Thesis: Consequences of a Lognormal or a Bimodal Resource Base Distribution

The copper case is often used as an example in resource depletion studies. Despite these studies, several profound uncertainties remain in the system. One of these uncertainties is the distribution of copper grades in the lithosphere. The Skinner thesis promotes the idea that copper grades may be distributed with a bimodal distribution instead...

Comparing Behavioral Dynamics Across Models: The Case of Copper

Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models

High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In...

The uncertain future of copper: An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the global copper system in the next 40 years

High copper prices have not led to a place for this metal in the debate about mineral scarcity, while copper is a base metal which has many uses and is vital for developments in the energy transition. In this research the global copper system is examined from the perspective of the development of supply and demand and the effects structural and...